806
FXUS61 KALY 131816
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER WEST, LIMITING THE
IMPACT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION. COLD AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER STILL EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY THURSDAY.
2) COLDER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN.
3) ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED DOWN BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE BOUNDARY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING LATER AND FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE TOTAL AMOUNT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH SOME IS STILL EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
MUCH OF THE REGION TO REACH INTO THE 40S, ESPECIALLY THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 40S.
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOWING MARCHING EASTWARD FROM WESTERN NEW YORK,
AND SHOULD BE CROSSING WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN AT LOW LEVELS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES, SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. MODELS SUGGESTS THERE
WON'T BE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT, BUT THE PASSING LOW SHOULD HELP PROLONG A LITTLE BIT.
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THAT WILL BE AIDED
BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SEE A LITTLE EXTRA, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
BE DONE WITH PRECIP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY (PERHAPS AS LATE AS THE
MID MORNING HOURS FOR THOSE HIGH TERRAIN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS).
OVERALL, THERE WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST
AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
COULD LOCALLY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN TOTAL. WHILE THIS LOOK TO BE
MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS, THE LIGHT COATING OF SNOW, IN
ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING, MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SLICK SURFACES FOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY WILL
PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -15
F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE IT LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE-ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME, IT WILL BE CLOSE.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND COLD ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN CHILLY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST OF THE TIME
AS WELL. OVERALL, THE WIND WON'T BE AS BIG AS A FACTOR FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS MAINLY STAYING UNDER 20 MPH
MOST OF THE TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIP
LOOKS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER, MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES AREN'T SUGGESTING ANY ORGANIZED STORMS SYSTEMS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWING A COASTAL
STORM, THE CURRENT SETUP WOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TOO
FAR EAST TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER, KEEPING US WITHIN THE
COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY
BE SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION FROM LAKE EFFECT AND PERHAPS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TOO, THE PROBABILITY OF
THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
MAINLY UNDER 25% AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 12:20 PM EST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT GFL
WHERE A TEMPO WAS USED, BUT JUST VCSH INCLUDED FOR ALB/PSF AS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS MUCH MORE ISOLATED HERE. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DID MOVE UP THE TIMING
EARLIER IN THE EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FOR ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THEN, AN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS, SO HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO GIVE A BUFFER
HERE. WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED AT
ALB/POU/PSF. FOR GFL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF SHOWERS ARRIVE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH HERE, ALTHOUGH CIGS
STILL EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KT, INCREASING
TO 10KT FROM THE S/SE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING (LOCALLY
STRONGER AT ALB WITH WINDS OF 15KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT). WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT ALB THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 5-10
KT NO GUSTS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER AROUND 06Z. S/SE WINDS
REMAIN AT 5-10 KT TOMORROW, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AT ALB/GFL.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALB/POU/PSF FROM THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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