798
FXUS61 KALY 140712
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS INCREASED FOR TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW MORNING TO OVER 80 PERCENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BRINGING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.
2) MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS AN ONSET PRECIPITATION
TYPE OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS AND RAINFALL TO EVERYWHERE ELSE.
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE SNOW
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER
TO A LIGHT SNOW IN VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND TO BE ON THE LOWER
SIDE TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY, CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN VT, AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS. FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE HERE SOONER FOR A QUICKER TURN AROUND OF
RAIN TO SNOW, SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES
TO 2 INCHES. NEVERTHELESS, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY TOMORROW
MORNING, SLICK AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS OR ICY PAVEMENT SURFACES SO
USE EXTRA CAUTION TOMORROW MORNING WHEN HEADING OUT FOR THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE START TODAY OFF WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGH
TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW FROM THE LOW 30S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH FIVE BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND
SUPPORTS FOR SNOW BANDS TO REACH INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION
WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP AND PERSISTS, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY NEED EXTENDING IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH BOTH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND SETS UP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP.
NEVERTHELESS, SLIPPERY CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
FOR WINDS, ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TOMORROW AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
IT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY FOR WINDS TO
GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. FOR PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES,
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE BERKSHIRES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 15 UTC/14 AS
A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS. LLWS WIND SHEAR MAINLY AT PSF
AND POU WILL SUBSIDE BY 09-12 UTC AS WINDS AT 2000FT WEAKEN BY EARLY
WED MORNING. THEN, CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TOMORROW MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO OUR NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING. INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS
TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST REACHING POU AND PSF FIRST BETWEEN
15 AND 18 UTC. WHILE CIGS LOWER, THEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS TRACK INTO ALB/GFL BY 19-22 UTC.
HOWEVER, VIS MAY BECOME MVFR AS SHOWERS TURN STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHWARD 00 - 03 UTC
WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AT POU AND PSF TO TURN EVEN LIGHTER/MORE
INTERMITTENT WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST AT ALB AND GFL. AS A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG OUR BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXPAND EASTWARD. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AND
THEREBY WHEN SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD BUT IT LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY
CLOSER TO EVEN AFTER 06 UTC. THEREFORE, HOLD OFF ON MVFR/IFR CIGS
UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RANGE 5-10KTS AFTER 12 UTC WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-
20KTS MAINLY AT ALB AND PSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ038-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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