384
FXUS61 KALY 150527
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN VALLEY AREAS SEEING LITTLE TO NO
SNOW TONIGHT, SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE DECREASED FURTHER FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WERE INCREASED DUE TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN DEEP MIXING AND TERRAIN INFLUENCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD, NUISANCE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL WET WALKING AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND POSE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
TOMORROW MORNING'S COMMUTE.
2) SNOW BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
3) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIE AHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE CYCLONE CURRENTLY RESIDES IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. ALOFT, THE AXIS OF A
LARGE- SCALE, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SURGING NORTHWARD ABOUT ITS FORWARD FLANK. WITH JUST ENOUGH
FORCING PRESENT, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONGEAL INTO A STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO OUR SOUTH BEGINNING DISRUPTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING, RATES WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN,
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW, PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT.
IT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE SNOW AS THE LOSS OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE COLUMN MOIST FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE AN EASIER TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. THAT SAID, VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE, A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
ABOUT 1.5" IS ANTICIPATED.
THAT SAID, WALKING AND ROAD SURFACES WILL BECOME WET EVEN FROM
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THESE SURFACES WILL
FREEZE, POSSIBLY FAIRLY QUICKLY ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE, TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
TOMORROW'S MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS
ESPECIALLY WHERE ROADWAYS GO UNTREATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. MOIST, CYCLONIC, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHILE OTHER AREAS
DRY OUT. THEN, LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW
TO ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER.
BY TOMORROW EVENING, ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS WILL RANGE FROM 2-5 INCHES. THE EXPECTATION FOR
THESE MODERATE SNOWFALL TOTALS, IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, WARRANTED
THE MAINTAINING OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH 7
PM TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY RETURN FOR FRIDAY, AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THERE IS NOT A LARGE
CONCERN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER, BUT RATHER JUST
NUISANCE PRECIPITATION MUCH LIKE WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
THERE IS A STORM WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THAT FALLS TO THE
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A NOR'EASTER THAT WILL TRACK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSE LITTLE CONCERN TO OUR CWA. IN
FACT, MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FARTHER-EAST TRACK THAT WOULD KEEP
US COMPLETELY DRY. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
RUNS DO PUSH THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD BRING
SNOW TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM AND ALTER THE FORECAST AND
MESSAGING IF IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT WE COULD BE IMPACTED BY
IT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...WIDELY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS (MVFR TO
LIFR) ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES UNTIL 12Z/THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES FOR THESE
FLUCTUATIONS. AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-18Z/THU WITH ONE ADDITIONAL BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE SITES DURING THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z/THU AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING A RETURN TO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z/THU WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME AT KPSF WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED BETWEEN
21Z/THU AND 02Z/FRI.
VARIABLE WIND AT 5 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
18Z/THU WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...33
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