726
FXUS61 KALY 150815
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO WET
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS INCREASED AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. WET
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOW RANGE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE RENSSELAER
PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS WITH EVEN COATING TO 0.5" IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, THE TACONICS AND WESTERN MA. WET SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET SURFACES TO TURN ICY AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
DROP CAN LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE P.M COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY TRAVEL TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ALLOW ANY WET SURFACES TO BECOME
ICY. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS CAN RESULT IN CONTINUED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
2) WET SURFACES ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CAN
QUICKLY TURN ICY THIS AFTERNOON (INCLUDING THE P.M COMMUTE) AS
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE 20S. THERE IS EVEN A 20 TO
50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS
AND RENSSELAER PLATEAU.
3) WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A FEW DISTURBANCE FOR THE WEEKEND THAT
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP PRESSURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW OUR NOW CLOSED PARENT CYCLONE POSITIONED WELL
TO OUR WEST WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SFC WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO AID IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN VALLEY AREAS WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND STILL IN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AS A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING, SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
LEADING TO MORE APPRECIABLE WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEN, AS
THE FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD IN THIS AREA BY 15 - 18 UTC, WE
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. BETWEEN THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET SNOW AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES, ANY WET
SURFACE CAN EASILY TURN ICY LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.
WHILE THE STEADY SNOW TURNS LIGHTER AND EVEN STOPS FOR A PERIOD IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON, COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE INITIAL
LAKE EFFECT BANDS EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS INITIALLY WILL
BE RATHER HIGH NEAR 800HPA THIS EVENING SUPPORTING STEADY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
DECREASING AFTER 06 UTC INDICATING BANDS WEAKEN. AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO
BECOME GUSTY REACHING 25 TO 30MPH TONIGHT WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH FALLING SNOW CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND STARTS THE DAY
MILD, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD AND
SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS
A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING, EXPECTING
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGEOVER TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
(ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS). LATEST PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10 TO 40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW
FALLING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN TACONICS. THERE IS EVEN A 10 TO
30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A 0.5" OF WET SNOW IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY, THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES. OUR LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES. WE EVEN SHOW
COATING TO A FEW TENTHS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. SHOULD PRECIP FALL HEAVY
ENOUGH AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET,
THERE MAY BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY LOOKS TO
BE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, NORTHERN TACONICS, AND SOUTHERN
VT WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN OVERLAP OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE 20S (TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN) AND ANY
WET SURFACES CAN EASILY TURN ICY. THIS UNFORTUNATELY CAN CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE SO BE CAREFUL ON YOUR WAY HOME FROM
WORK/SCHOOL. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY REACHING 25 TO 35MPH
WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT SURFACES BUT GIVEN HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET, THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH DRYING TIME.
IT WILL TURN QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH MANY FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS THE TRUE PUNCH OF
COLD AIR RACES EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY OUT SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BROAD TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LINGERING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SATURDAY WHICH
SUPPORTS PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS COMBINES WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE
THAT BECOMES SHEARED OUT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, OVERALL PRECIP INTENSITY LOOKS MAINLY
LIGHT AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
AFTERNOON, OVERALL IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SLIPPERY TRAVEL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING WHEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF OUR BROAD TROUGHING WHICH
WILL ALLOW IT TO AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY
INDUCE CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE EAST COAST. LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
SHOW TWO MAIN SCENARIOS. SHOULD A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO PHASING WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE, THEN THE
RESULTING COASTAL LOW MAY TAKE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK AND
THEREFORE ALLOW THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF ITS PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE
RESULTING TROUGH IS A BIT WEAKER, THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO TRACK
FURTHER OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE IMPACTS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT ~60% OF THE ENSEMBLES LEAN ON
THE FURTHER EAST SOLUTION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS. THE ~40% OF THE ENSEMBLES THAT SHOW A FURTHER WEST
TRACK ALSO SHOW INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOCUSED MAINLY
IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-90. THIS INDICATES THAT EVEN
IF THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS WEST, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...WIDELY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS (MVFR TO
LIFR) ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES UNTIL 12Z/THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES FOR THESE
FLUCTUATIONS. AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-18Z/THU WITH ONE ADDITIONAL BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE SITES DURING THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z/THU AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING A RETURN TO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z/THU WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME AT KPSF WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED BETWEEN
21Z/THU AND 02Z/FRI.
VARIABLE WIND AT 5 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
18Z/THU WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...33
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