004
FXUS61 KALY 160048
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
748 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS OF 7 PM FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH ANY ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMS LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIND CHILL TEMPS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 BELOW
ZERO TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.
2) A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL, BUT THE THREAT FOR A LARGER
STORM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE
LOW FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30
MPH WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BECOME RATHER COLD FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS/"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS WILL BE
ZERO TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER THE MTNS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS. BUNDLE UP IF
GOING OUTDOORS TONIGHT AFTER THE MILDER WEATHER YESTERDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH, AIDED BY SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION, WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE
MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
AT LEAST SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY JUST A DUSTING TO AN INCH, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS, BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL
DOES LOOK LIMITED AND RATES WON'T BE HIGH AT ALL.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE WAS TRYING TO SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED
COASTAL STORM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, THE LATEST RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME, AS ANY
DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS WEAK AND WELL OFFSHORE. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
THE NBM PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IS UNDER 15% FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOK COLD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ARCTIC
AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE NBM SUGGEST THE PROBABILITY FOR LOWS UNDER 10 F WILL
BE OVER 50% PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MID-WEEK.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO AT TIMES DURING THE
WEEK AND THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES, SOME ACTIVITY COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AT TIMES, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00 UTC SAT...VFR CONDITIONS OPEN THE TAF CYCLE FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 3.5-5 KFT AGL FOR
KALB/KGFL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES 3.5-5 KFT AGL FOR KPSF TO KPOU WITH
THE CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS TAPPING LAKE MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE MAY IMPACT
KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/FRI WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND TEMPO OR
PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED. AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
12Z/FRI AT KPSF WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
10Z-14Z/FRI WITH CLEARING SKIES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT 8-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z/FRI FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-18 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT PERSISTING AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH DECREASING GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/27
AVIATION...15
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