458
FXUS61 KALY 161731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, WESTERN MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY,
CT, HAVE INCREASED. THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS BUT
SINCE THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND AND OVER A
RATHER LONG WINDOW, HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES IN
COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOSTON AND BURLINGTON.
THE COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST WITH LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE,
THIS HAZARD WAS REMOVED FROM THE KEY MESSAGES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRESS WARMLY AND IN LAYERS THIS MORNING AS WIND CHILL VALUES
OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO +5F ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (EVEN AS LOW -10F TO
-20F IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR YOUR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
2) SLIPPERY TRAVEL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RESULTS IN PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT)
WHERE THERE IS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE IN EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30
MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SINCE IT WILL BE COLD THIS
MORNING AS WE START THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, THE
COMBINATION OF BRISK WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS/"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +5F AND -5F
WITH -10F TO -20F IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. BUNDLE UP FOR YOUR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE!
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM OVER THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE ATLANTIC, RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ENHANCED
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME
STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FORCING
FOR ASCENT INTERSECTING THE DGZ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS WHERE FGEN IN THE 850-700HPA LAYER INCREASES. SOUTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
SOUTHERN VT, THE TACONICS, WESTERN MA, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
LOOKS TO RESULT IN INSTANCES OF MODERATE SNOW.
THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES ON HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS WITHIN THESE
PERIODS OF SNOW WITH THE SPREAD FOR THE 24HR QPF BETWEEN THE
NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE STILL NEARLY 0.25" ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FROM 06 UTC SAT TO 06 UTC SUN. HOWEVER, WITHIN
TYPICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIMES, THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TENDS TO
BE A QPF MINIMUM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHILE THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE
WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS AND ALONG THE TERRAIN IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TEND TO BE HIGHER DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENTS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE FAVORED AREAS WILL NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
OUR LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED TO 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH
EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS OF SOUTHERN VT. THERE IS ALSO A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 3 INCHES PER THE LATEST NBM IN THESE
AREAS. GIVEN THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING ON A WEEKEND AND OVER A
RATHER LONG WINDOW BETWEEN 06 UTC SATURDAY AND 00 UTC SUNDAY, WE
HELD OFF ON ADVISORIES BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE,
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LOWER RANGING FROM 0.5 - 2 INCHES AND WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, HEAVILY TRAVELED ROADS SHOULD SEE LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY, IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUT AND ABOUT ON
SATURDAY, BE MINDFUL OF POTENTIAL SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FROM
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT OUR OVERALL PATTERN TURNS COLD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. BOTH THE NAEFS AND THE ECMWF ENS
SHOW THE INCOMING AIR MASS RANKING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD WITHIN MID TO LATE JANUARY. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL UNDER 10 F WILL BE OVER 50% PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH THE NBM SHOWING GREATER THAN
60% CHANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 20F! THE COLD
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALSO RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL VALUES AS MOST WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
PARTS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND THE
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
WESTERLY WINDS TRACKING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALSO SETS THE STAGE FOR A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION TO SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAT EXTEND EASTWARD OFF LAKE ONTARIO, INCLUDING
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HERE BUT AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER
DEPENDING ON THE RESIDENCE TIME AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS. DEPENDING ON HOW WINDS VEER, BANDS MAY ALSO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS AT
TIMES, LEADING TO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE AROUND AT THE
MOMENT, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL RATHER GUSTY FOR ALL SITES,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30
KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN SUNSET, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 04-06Z, BUT WILL
PROBABLY START AROUND 06Z-08Z. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME IFR FOR
ALL SITES FOR VISIBILITY IN THE 1-2SM RANGE, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO AROUND 1500-3000 FT FOR ALL SITES. THESE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF AROUND 18Z FOR
ALL SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ038-039-041-054-061-065-066-082-084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
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