184
FXUS61 KALY 162248
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
548 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS BROKEN INTO 2 SECTIONS. THE
SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND FULTON COUNTIES SEGMENT WILL BEGIN STILL
AT 00Z/7 PM WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NORTHERN SARATOGA, TACONICS, DUTCHESS COUNTY,
LITCHFIELD HILLS, BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT SEGMENT WILL NOW
BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT AND RUN UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH UP TO 8 INCHES LOCALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AREAS OF SNOW
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
2) THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AREA THAT SNOW WILL FALL
IN.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH BREEZY WINDS MAKING FOR BITER COLD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BENEATH A NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A DEEPENING, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, INCREASING
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPLIES MOISTURE INTO THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALSO PROMOTED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF SNOW TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL MOISTURE SUPPLY IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
STEEP, POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH UPSTREAM CUTS OFF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE, OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. AN OVERALL LACK OF
STRONG FORCING, TOO WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF SNOWFALL RATES
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION,
TACONICS, SOUTHERN VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS
WHERE MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TOO, COULD HAVE
LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONGER AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THROUGH THERE
LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 8 INCHES IN
ISOLATED, HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY POTENT COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE FEATURE OF
INTEREST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIED IN THEIR
PORTRAYAL OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME RUNS INDICATING
A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION THAT WOULD KEEP IT OUT OF
REACH OF OUR AREA AND OTHERS RESOLVING MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST
TRACK THAT MAY ALLOW ITS DEFORMATION ZONE TO SCRAPE AT LEAST OUR
FAR-SOUTHEAST ZONES. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH FAVORING THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK WHICH WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE IMPACT, IF ANY, THE STORM HAS ON OUR
AREA.
AFTER CLOSE CONSIDERATION OF ALL THE DATA AND EXTENSIVE
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES, THE
GENERAL, HIGH-CONFIDENCE CONSENSUS SIDES WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST
TRACK THAT WILL PUSH THE STORM FARTHER OFF SHORE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS LOCALLY. WHILE THE
ANTICIPATED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL AMPLIFY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, IT WON'T BE TO A SUFFICIENT EXTENT
TO STEER THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. SAID AMPLIFICATION WILL
ALSO TAKE PLACE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO HAVE MUCH STEERING
CONTROL OVER THE DEVELOPING LOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LACK
OF PHASING OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH
ALOFT THAT THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH. THIS LACK OF PHASING WILL
ALSO FAVOR PUSHING THE LOW FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
SUBSEQUENTLY FARTHER FROM OUR AREA.
THAT SAID, WE CHOSE TO IMPLEMENT THE MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM BACK
INTO THE KEY MESSAGES BECAUSE, DESPITE THE CONSENSUS OF THE FARTHER
EAST TRACK, THERE IS STILL SOME HINT THAT THE LARGE DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD SNEAK INTO
SOME OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. IN FACT, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) POPS INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
NOW, IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE POPS ONLY SPAN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME (LESS THAN AN INCH). BUT WE FELT IT
IMPORTANT TO AT LEAST MESSAGE THIS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ITERATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS
TO CATCH AND ADJUST THE FORECAST TO ANY LOW PROBABILITY,
"SURPRISE" SITUATIONS, BUT MAINTAIN THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
NON-EVENTFUL END OF THE WEEKEND FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ONE
PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD,
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE OFF THE
LAKE AND REQUISITE ASCENT TO SUPPORT THIS OUTCOME. WHILE EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN, THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM
HAS 30-60% PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 7" OF SNOW (LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING CRITERIA) OVER A 72 HOUR PERIOD IN NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. THE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW
(ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE EVEN HIGHER AND MORE SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY AT 30 TO
NEARLY 90%. THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME, WE CAN SAY THAT THERE IS
AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY- LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS OF EXACT TIMING, BAND
PLACEMENT, AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WARRANT THE LACK OF HIGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THAT SAID, WITH THIS BEING SUCH A
LOCALIZED AREA AS IT IS, THERE WILL BE FEW, IF ANY, IMPACTS OR
THREATS TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS LATEST ENSEMBLES INDICATE
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
IN FACT, THE LATEST NAEFS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (AT
THE 500, 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS) REACHING AS MANY AS 2 TO 2.5
STDEVS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MODERATING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL
LEVEL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT LARGELY SPAN THE TENS AND 20S. TO MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL CHILLIER, PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THESE HEADLINES WILL ACTUALLY BE
NEEDED AND FOR WHAT DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST WHERE
NECESSARY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE AROUND AT THE
MOMENT, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL RATHER GUSTY FOR ALL SITES,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30
KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THAN SUNSET, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 04-06Z, BUT WILL
PROBABLY START AROUND 06Z-08Z. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME IFR FOR
ALL SITES FOR VISIBILITY IN THE 1-2SM RANGE, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO AROUND 1500-3000 FT FOR ALL SITES. THESE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF AROUND 18Z FOR
ALL SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ041-054-061-065-066-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ038-039-
082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15/37
AVIATION...27
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