723
FXUS61 KALY 171743
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND ALSO
ULSTER COUNTY AND WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREAS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HAZARDOUS TO LOCALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.
2) A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL FROM BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND
PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC TODAY. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
SUPPORTING PERIODS OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 HPA LAYER WILL AID IN AREAS
OF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPING LEADING TO
VARIABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIMES
(PER LOCAL ALY RESEARCH), SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ENHANCED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITHIN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS (I.E. MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS), SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S, THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TO LOCALLY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY. FOR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MID-30S COULD LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LIMITING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. LATEST CAMS SHIFT THE SNOW OUT OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 4-7PM WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE END
TIME OF THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO 7 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL
UNDERGO A NEGATIVE TILT ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE
ON A STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS THE WORST OF THESE SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD
EXPAND ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY, BUT OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH). SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-45
PERCENT) WERE MAINTAINED IN THESE AREAS WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHOULD A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OCCUR, THEN SOME
LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR THESE AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS; OTHERWISE,
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THIS COASTAL STORM, BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND
-20C. THIS WILL RESULT IN TUESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EXCEPT HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. DESPITE THE
COLD AND AN OCCASIONAL BREEZE, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SHY OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. ALONG
WITH THE COLD, A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO CROSS THE
AREA, ONE ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SYSTEMS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
OVERALL TRAJECTORIES FAVORING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS (ONE ROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). FRAGMENTS
OF THIS BAND COULD EXTEND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT TIMES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS OVERALL COLD WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF JANUARY WITH AND LATEST TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SPANNING JANUARY 24-30.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z
BRINGING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z, WIDESPREAD SNOW
BECOMES SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY END. CONDITIONS ALSO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO IFR/MVFR. BY 18/00Z, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TAF
PERIOD TO INCLUDE ONSET TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z FOR KPOU AND KPSF, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033-038-039-041>043-054-061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...05
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