204
FXUS61 KALY 171835
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED AGAIN TO INCLUDE
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE
TO A FEW INCHES OF EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN ADDITION,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADY SNOWFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY THIS EVENING. SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND
LOW VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
2) A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL FROM BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND
PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A RESULT AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, STEADY SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
ONGOING THIS MORNING. THIS SNOWFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AT TIMES, WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TOTALS HAVE RANGED
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN UP TO 5 INCHES, MAINLY OVER THE BERKSHIRES.
BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND CAMS, THE STEADY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY FOR EASTERN AREAS)
THROUGH THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2 TO 6 INCH RANGE, BUT A SPOTS IN SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES
MAY SEE 7 OR 8 WITHIN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL
MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MOST AREAS, LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING FROM OCCURRING, ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON
VALLEY. AS SNOW TAPERS OFF, TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY AREAS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING AS WELL. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK FOR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW,
AIDED BY A STRONG JET STREAK ALOFT AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER AREA
OF LIGHT STEADY SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (THE CATSKILLS,
MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT). SOME
ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CAPITAL REGION. AS
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN, THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, GENERALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH
AND EAST. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE DONE IN OUR AREA BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST PLACES (A
COATING TO TWO INCHES FOR MOST SPOTS). SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY, BERKSHIRE
COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, WHERE 2-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. A
FEW SPOTS IN FAR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY MAY SEE AROUND 4
INCHES. BASED ON EXPECTED TOTALS, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
THANKS TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
WELL AND A FEW FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
REGION AS WELL.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE BAND, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME, AS A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE-EFFECT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO -20 C AS WELL,
MAKING FOR RATHER FRIGID TEMPS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S, MAKING FOR A RATHER FRIGID DAY AS WELL.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PASS THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY WITH SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO OCCUR ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z
BRINGING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z, WIDESPREAD SNOW
BECOMES SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY END. CONDITIONS ALSO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO IFR/MVFR. BY 18/00Z, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TAF
PERIOD TO INCLUDE ONSET TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z FOR KPOU AND KPSF, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033-038-039-041>043-054-061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...05
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