873
FXUS61 KALY 180655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WESTWARD SHIFT IN SNOWFALL TODAY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AN EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. IN ADDITION, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL FROM BOTH
LAKE EFFECT AND PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEMS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE
TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS INCLUDING OUR REGION BEING CO-LOCATED WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 170+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOP OF PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW WILL STILL TRACK SOUTH/EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LOOKS TO EXPAND FARTHER
WESTWARD. THIS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EITHER
BECOMING LIGHTER OR EVEN ENDING FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECOND SURGE OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT (BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE) AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED WHICH RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION OF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FARTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES
OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
FIRST REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 7 INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. AS
A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER EAST INTO HAMILTON COUNTY WHERE AT LEAST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SOME FRAGMENTS OF THE BAND COULD
EXTEND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND/OR SOUTHERN VT AS WELL
BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -20C. THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN
HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY REACHING THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EXCEPT SOME
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A BREEZE AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA ON WED. THIS COULD BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SW
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE
DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE PARENT CYCLONE TRACKS
ACROSS QUEBEC, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THU WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO A LARGER AREA
COMPARED TO WED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE W.
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THU
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE TO COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS NEXT WEEKEND
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CIGS STILL
LINGERING IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AFFECTING KALB/KGFL/KPOU.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z, AS A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MIXES OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS. SO OTHER THAN PATCHY MIST WITH 5-6 SM VSBY BENEATH THE
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
ALREADY BE APPROACHING BY 11Z-12Z WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE AT
KPOU/KPSF, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE AT KALB AND MVFR
AT KGFL. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SNOW RE-DEVELOPS TOWARDS 23Z AS A DEVELOPING
STORM OFF THE COAST STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS SNOW BACK INTO THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF,
WITH MAINLY MVFR AT KGFL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH
THIS ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD AHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ054-060-061-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07/33
AVIATION...07
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