356
FXUS61 KALY 020754
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH
THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY DROPPING
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. WIND CHILLS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
MAY FALL SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SUBSIDED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, WE MAY CANCEL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN A FEW ZONES BEFORE MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS OR "FEEL-
LIKE" TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST THIS WEEK, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
FOR FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND TO RESULT
IN DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES.
2) A MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN SLIPPERY
TRAVEL, INCLUDING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR SKIES, WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK, AND WEAKENING WINDS AS OUR
COASTAL STORM EXITS OUT TO SEA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST NYS MESONET AND ASOS
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW MANY AREAS FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE IN WESTERN MA AND NW
CT WHICH ARE SUPPORTING WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR THE -15F AND -10F
CRITERIA BUT THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY MAY FALL SHORT OF THE -10F
WIND CHILL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SUBSIDED AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CANCEL ANY COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES EARLY IF IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THIS WEEK BUT IT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST 7-9 DAYS AS THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THAT MOST RISE INTO THE 20S EACH DAY COMPARED TO SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS SEEN IN LATE JANUARY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO WARM-UPS
ON THE HORIZON AS THE LATEST 6-10 DAY CPC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
SHOWS 80-90% CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
FEB 7-11. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND RANGES FROM THE
LOW TO MID 30S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID-TEENS. ALBANY HAS ONLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ONE DAY
SINCE JANUARY 15 WITH CONSECUTIVE BELOW FREEZING DAYS SINCE
JANUARY 23. THIS COLD SPELL ALREADY RANKS AMONG OUR "DEEP
FREEZE" RECORDS WITH A "DEEP FREEZE" DEFINED AS AT LEAST 10
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME WE RECORDED A
"DEEP FREEZE" WAS 2022 AND WE ARE ON TRACK TO HAVE A SIMILAR
STREAK (POTENTIALLY LONGER) TO THAT FROM 2015! SEE
WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/ALY/CLIMATE/DEEPFREEZES.PDF FOR MORE.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND BEHIND A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE LATEST NAEFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL INCLUDE 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGING 1.5
TO 2.5 STDEV BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN A 50 TO 75% CHANCE
THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALL UNDER 5 DEGREES WITH A 60
TO 90% CHANCE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL UNDER 0 DEGREES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS BOTH NIGHTS, THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EVEN EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
15-30% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN VALLEY
AREAS RISE ABOVE 15 DEGREES WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY 25-50% CHANCE
THAT HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS RISE ABOVE 15 DEGREES AND UNDER 10%
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A QUICK MOVING YET MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE WE HAVE LOW END
CHANCE AND LIGHT CHANCE POPS; HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COMPACT CLOSED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA AND PHASES WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE, RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT QUICKLY TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
GIVEN THAT THE PARENT CLOSED LOW ORIGINATES FROM NORTHERN
CANADA, MOISTURE IS VERY LACKLUSTER AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS PER
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REMAIN LOW. IN FACT, THERE IS
ONLY A 20 TO 50% CHANCE FOR 24HR QPF AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.10"
7AM FRI TO 7 AM SAT REGIONWIDE. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
MAINLY FROM SLIPPERY TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED; HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING
COMMUTE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW QPF AMOUNTS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ALSO LIKELY LOW WITH THE NBM 24-HR PROBABILITIES FROM 7AM
FRI TO 7 AM SAT SHOWING ONLY A 25-50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
FOR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE CLIPPER WILL ALSO USHER
A POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS. AS
THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, GUSTY WINDS LOOK
TO LINGER IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 30 TO
60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40MPH BETWEEN 1AM SATURDAY AND
1AM SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. ANY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY
TO NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS UP TO 06Z/TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WIND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD EXCEPT VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT AT KGFL. KPSF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT LLWS ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ051-
054-058-061-063>066.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...33
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