887
FXUS61 KALY 030555
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF FAST
MOVING CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WITH GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY FROM SLIPPERY TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
SNOW SQUALLS.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS COLD AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SURFACE LOW SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD, CLOSELY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO OUR NORTH, FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. ALOFT, THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED CYCLONE WILL REMAIN MUCH
FARTHER TO OUR NORTH, EXTENDING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WITH
THE SLIGHT DEEPENING OF BOTH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
CYCLONE, A FAIRLY STEEP AXIS OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE THE ENHANCEMENT TO ASCENT BOTH IN THE LOW- AND UPPER-
LEVELS, THIS WILL BE A RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED AND PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, WHILE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS CLIPPER, MUCH OF THE
SNOW WE SEE WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY MODERATE
IN NATURE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISMS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS CAN ALSO ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS IN THE MID- TO LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
A BAND OF MID- TO LOW-LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
THIS SAME TIME, THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEPART FROM OVERHEAD
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AND, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED DGZ,
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS TO
EVEN SNOW SQUALLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE PASSAGE OF
THE POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER LOW. STILL,
THESE WOULD NOT IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATLY AND BEING THAT
THEIR OCCURRENCE WOULD BE EARLY ON A WEEKEND DAY, THERE LUCKILY
WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A SOCIETAL IMPACT EITHER. IN FACT, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX INDICATES LOW PROBABILITIES (5-20%) FOR EVEN MINOR IMPACTS
(A FEW INCONVENIENCES TO DAILY LIFE DUE TO WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS) ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE WHOLE OF THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR DAYS OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNFORTUNATELY ARE NUMBERED AS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL ENVELOPE EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS, BOTH 700HPA AND 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO NEARLY 2.5 STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
TO MAKE MATTERS FEEL WORSE, A LINGERING COLD ADVECTION REGIME
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS A STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WILL ELEVATE WIND GUSTS. SO, NOT ONLY WILL
AIR TEMPERATURES BE VERY COLD, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES, OR
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES, WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD
REGIONWIDE. AND WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST
NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE QMD PROBABILITIES FOR <1F ARE ABOUT 20
TO 90% FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, 40-100% FOR SATURDAY NIGHT; AND 30-100%
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE NBM MAXIMUM WIND GUST FORECAST FOR
THESE TIME PERIODS VERIFY, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 10S
TO 20S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN 30S BELOW ZERO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT WIND
CHILL FORECAST. HOWEVER, KNOW THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
POTENTIALLY EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP PRIOR
TO 12Z/TUE AT ALL SITES. WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME
LOWERING OF VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LESS CERTAIN. TEMPO GROUPS WERE
MAINTAINED TO INDICATE THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF THE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. ANY LOW STRATUS
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AFTER 12/TUE WITH AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 18Z/TUE. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z/WED BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUSION UNTIL THE NEXT TAF
UPDATE. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD REACH
SOME TAF SITES NEAR 04-06Z/WED WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR WHICH WILL ALSO BE INTRODUCED AT THE NEXT UPDATE. WIND WILL
BE LIGHT OR OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN. SATURDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...33
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