311
FXUS61 KALY 031734
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW FROM OUR CLIPPER DISTURBANCE ON
FRIDAY HAS TRENDED LATER NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
WE BLENDED NBM/NBM90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS THIS
WEEKEND GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A PERSISTENT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY FROM SLIPPERY TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
SNOW SQUALLS.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD AND AN
INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE A FEW MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW INSTANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY THAT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH A MORE POTENT CLOSED
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS TRENDED LATER AND THEREFORE THE SURGE
OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT HAS TRENDED
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY SO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW NOW LOOKS TO HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY P.M/EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A MORE POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY DIGS
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE TWO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE BY EARLY SATURDAY RESULTING IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE OVERALL
FORCING AND MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY P.M INTO FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS
WEAK, THE INCOMING WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND
MID- LEVELS COMBINED WITH FORCING INTERSECTING THE DGZ AT TIMES
LOOKS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
EVENT. THE WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS, NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT BEING NIGHTTIME AND INTO A
WEEKEND SHOULD MINIMIZE IMPACTS AND WPC'S PROBABILISTIC WSSI
CONTINUES TO SHOW UNDER 20% CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS OR MINOR
INCONVENIENCES TO DAILY LIFE. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS BUT AGAIN THE WEEKEND TIMING
SHOULD MINIMIZE IMPACTS. BOTTOM LINE, IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUT AND
ABOUT SATURDAY MORNING, GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME DUE TO
SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL FALLING OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY A.M HOURS.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM ONLY SHOWS A 15-30%
CHANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.10" AND EVEN WITH ELEVATED
SNOW-TO-LIQUID (SLRS) RATIOS OVER 15:1, THIS STILL EQUATES TO
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY FALLING UNDER 2 INCHES.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPSLOPING LIKELY
ENHANCES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT EVEN THERE IS ONLY A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE TO EXCEED 2 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS COLD
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A FRIGID AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND OUR
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS A SFC LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUICKLY TIGHTENS SUPPORTING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THERE
IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS FROM NORTHERN CANADA
INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. NOT ONLY
DO THE NAEFS STILL SHOW 850HPA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGING 2
TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGING BETWEEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS RANGING BETWEEN NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE DANGEROUS COLD LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT CLOSED LOW SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST,
LOCKING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WE WILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (WIND CHILL VALUES -10F
TO -15F) CRITERIA THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND EVEN MEETING EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA (WIND CHILL
VALUES -25F TO -30F) IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK AND POTENTIALLY
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THESE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED AT NIGHT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WE MAY EVEN NEED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES DAYTIME SATURDAY IN PARTS OF THE REGION.
LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED PARENT CYCLONE AS
IT DIVES OUT OF CANADA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHEN
AND WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED, WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS, EXPECT MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE PASSES WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF
SKIES CLEAR OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING, WITH BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
LESS THAN 8 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
AT KALB/KPSF BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24/53
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