714
FXUS61 KALY 040527
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 9:45 PM EST...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO WE
BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-87 THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR N/NW AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE CONTINUED
TO BLEND NBM90TH PERCENTILE WITH THE NBM FOR WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS MAINLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN CLEAR SIGNALS FOR AN
UNDER-PERFORMANCE BY STRAIGHT NBM. ADDITIONALLY, WE ALSO BLENDED
IN NBM25TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN FURTHER INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ALSO FALL BELOW WHAT THE NBM ALONE
WAS PRODUCING.
ONE IMPORTANT THING TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, IS THAT WHILE
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS IN THE DANGEROUS COLD
OUTBREAK THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING
FROM THE PRECEDING CLIPPER. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE WIND CHILL
VALUES WIDELY REACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT, IF AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (~10 TO 40%) FOR MINOR IMPACTS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW RESULTING
FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THAT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A RESULT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY AREA, EXTENDING A
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. JUST AHEAD OF THIS MAIN AXIS, A SECONDARY, WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION, POTENTIALLY INITIALIZING AN FIRST BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UNCERTAINTY HERE IS ALLOCATED TO THE
LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE JUST AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, ALSO LOCATED NEAR
THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY AREA. WITH THIS BEING A RELATIVELY
MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM ALREADY, THAT INCREASED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT LIFT WOULD CERTAINLY HELP TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN AND AT LEAST ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DUE TO EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. MOST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THIS ARE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND SINKING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT DOES EXTEND INTO OUR CWA.
DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES THE SECOND,
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS DEEPENING ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSLATE TO A SURFACE
RESPONSE OF CYCLOGENESIS OF THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY
JUST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERHEAD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN COURTESY OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE. ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THAT OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
THE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST, CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND BECOME OUR PRIMARY LOW AS IT
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE JUST INSIDE THE GULF OF
MAINE. A STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DETAIL OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY
RELATES TO THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY THAT IS BEING
INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS,
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
COMPLETELY SCOURING OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.5" TO 2" WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3" TO 4" POTENTIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONSUME
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT. NOT ONLY WILL AIR TEMPERATURES BE
BRUTALLY COLD, BUT A BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE STILL
DEEPENING, EASTWARD-DEPARTING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A STEEPENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MAKING FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WELL. THIS WILL DRIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES,
OR WIND CHILL VALUES/"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES, INTO DANGEROUS
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO ALSO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD, BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT
BETTER INSULATION DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWER
WINDS PRIOR TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OF THE SURFACE LOW.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS, 850HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
1.5 TO 2.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
TRANSLATING TO NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE BETWEEN 2 AND
NEARLY 3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE LATEST
NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE QMD PROBABILITIES FOR SUBZERO VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ~10-90%
FRIDAY NIGHT; ~40-100% SATURDAY NIGHT; ~30-100% SUNDAY NIGHT;
AND ~10-70% MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CONSISTENTLY LOCATED IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THAT SAID,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHER PROBABILITIES
ARE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, AND LOWER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES FOR APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL VALUES/"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES) LESS
THAN -10F RANGE FROM ~40-90% FRIDAY NIGHT; ~50-90% SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY; ~70-100% SATURDAY NIGHT; ~70-100% SUNDAY NIGHT;
AND ~20-70% MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE AND APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS STEMS IN
PART FROM ALSO NEEDING TO IRON OUT THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. BUT AS LEAD TIME
DECREASES, WE WILL CERTAINLY GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THESE FINER
DETAILS. AND, GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF
SUCH A DANGEROUS COLD OUTBREAK, WE ALSO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME COLD
WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT. HOWEVER, A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING KALB AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS KPSF OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. THIS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3SM
WITH CEILINGS ALSO AROUND MVFR RANGE. IT DOESN'T LOOK TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WHILE THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF IFR
VISIBILITY, IT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE SITES, OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE VALLEY SITES WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4500-6000 FT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. KPSF
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
WELL.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR
ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH JUST
SCT CIGS AROUND 3-5 KFT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS,
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...27
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