402
FXUS61 KALY 040615
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER (ASIDE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY) AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE AREA. THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOW OCCURRING FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OVERALL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
CROSSES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS. WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
CONDITIONS, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW -20C WHICH IS -2 TO -3 STDEV.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A 1030-1035 HPA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 30-40 MPH. ADDING IN THE COLD, THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND
CHILL VALUES (FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES) FALLING TO 15 TO 30
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
NOT BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. STILL, GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK COMMON WITH SOME
LOCALLY UP TO 30 MPH. DESPITE THAT, WIND CHILL VALUES (FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES) WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY FALLING BACK TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER.
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE REACHING THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ON MONDAY AND 20S TO NEAR 30 BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT. HOWEVER, A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING KALB AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS KPSF OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. THIS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3SM
WITH CEILINGS ALSO AROUND MVFR RANGE. IT DOESN'T LOOK TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WHILE THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF IFR
VISIBILITY, IT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE SITES, OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE VALLEY SITES WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4500-6000 FT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. KPSF
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
WELL.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR
ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH JUST
SCT CIGS AROUND 3-5 KFT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS,
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...27
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