971
FXUS61 KALY 041740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER (ASIDE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY) AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE AREA. THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOW OCCURRING FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OVERALL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
CROSSES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS. WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
CONDITIONS, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW -20C WHICH IS -2 TO -3 STDEV.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A 1030-1035 HPA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 30-40 MPH. ADDING IN THE COLD, THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND
CHILL VALUES (FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES) FALLING TO 15 TO 30
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
NOT BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. STILL, GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK COMMON WITH SOME
LOCALLY UP TO 30 MPH. DESPITE THAT, WIND CHILL VALUES (FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES) WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY FALLING BACK TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER.
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE REACHING THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ON MONDAY AND 20S TO NEAR 30 BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING 1800
UTC/THU FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME HIGH MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 2100 UTC FOR KPSF WITH CIGS IN THE
2.5-3.0 KFT AGL RANGE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR KPSF WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KPOU. EXPECT SOME LOW VFR STRATOCUMULUS TO
MOVE INTO KALB/KPSF/KGFL AFTER 12Z/THU. THE WINDS WILL BE WEST
TO NORTHWEST 7-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH WEAK
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34
KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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