543
FXUS61 KALY 051104
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES, OR 'FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO
BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LOW, LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY, WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT NEARS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT FLOW WILL SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
START TIMING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND OVERNIGHT
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE
AREA. A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW RESPONSE COULD LEAD
TO SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES,
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE RANGING FROM A COATING TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS, SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR ANYONE HEADING OUT FOR WEEKEND
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) WILL BUILD
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL START
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AIR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES ('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) TO BEGIN
REACHING AT LEAST COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST
WIND CHILL, OR 'FEELS- LIKE' TEMPERATURES, WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
20 AND 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO (NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA). UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL GUST BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES, OR 'FEELS-
LIKE' TEMPERATURES, WILL REBOUND DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM 5
ABOVE ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL
BACK TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A LIGHT BREEZE LINGERS AND TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO BETWEEN 0
AND 15 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3..
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. AIR
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO THE TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY WITH
EVEN LESS WIND COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN APPEAR
TO RISE INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ALBANY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE ITS 'DEEP FREEZE'
STREAK FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN. FOR NOW,
WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN WEST OF
THE REGION AND SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS AROUND. BASED
ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VFR. AFTER MID-MORNING OR SO, THERE WILL BE SOME SCT CUMULUS
AROUND 3-4 KFT, ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BKN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041>043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...27
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