380
FXUS61 KALY 060527
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW
CHARACTER WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, MORE OF A FLUFFY NATURE
THAN WET. SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DRIER AIR RETURNS AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
INCREASING WINDS AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
CAN OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CAUSING ROADS TO RE-COVER WITH SNOW THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
TREATED. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 1 PM EST...EXTREME COLD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, A
PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ('FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURES) WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AIR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO AN
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES
('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) TO BEGIN REACHING AT LEAST COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST WIND CHILL, OR 'FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURE, WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA).
A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL GUST BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES, OR 'FEELS-
LIKE' TEMPERATURES, WILL REBOUND DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM 5
ABOVE ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL
BACK TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A LIGHT BREEZE LINGERS AND TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO BETWEEN 0
AND 15 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. AIR
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO THE TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY WITH
EVEN LESS WIND COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN APPEAR
TO RISE INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ALBANY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE ITS 'DEEP FREEZE'
STREAK FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN. FOR NOW,
WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AND CALM WINDS. THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THESE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL STAY IN
PLACE, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS OF AROUND 5 KFT EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR VISIBILITY WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z-01Z.
WILL MENTION A PROB30 FOR SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 02Z AS
WELL FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHT FOR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL INCREASE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ054-061-064>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ054.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VTZ013-014.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VTZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...05/33
AVIATION...27
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