589
FXUS61 KALY 061805
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WESTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY, VT, NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, MA AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON, NY FOR 3-6" SNOW 7 PM TONIGHT TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING THE UPPER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY, VT FOR WIND CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS -25 TO -30F.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BRING SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL RECOVERING ALREADY TREATED ROADS.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL. NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
PREVIOUS FROM 615 AM EST...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL RETURN TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT NEARS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION, AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW AND SET UP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW. START TIMING OF THE SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 3-6PM
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 6-9PM FOR THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WILL ALLOW FOR THIS TO BE A LIGHTER, FLUFFIER SNOW WITH EXPECTED
SNOW RATIOS OF 14:1 TO 17:1. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LOOKING TO RECEIVE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES. THIS EQUATES
TO AN EXPECTED SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES FOR MOST. SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED TROUGH
COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER VALUES OF 4 TO 5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU AND INTO BENNINGTON COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD, SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADING TO SOME BLOWING SNOW
WHICH MAY RECOVER SOME ALREADY TREATED ROADS. SNOW WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) WILL BUILD
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AIR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO AN
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES
('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) TO BEGIN REACHING AT LEAST COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST WIND CHILL, OR 'FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURE, WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.
BASED ON SET COLD WEATHER CRITERIA AND COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AREA GET CLOSER TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE EXTREME COLD WARNING THRESHOLDS THAT A FUTURE
UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED. THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON AIR
TEMPERATURES AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL GUST BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES, OR 'FEELS-
LIKE' TEMPERATURES, WILL REBOUND DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM 5
ABOVE ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL
BACK TOWARD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MANY AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LIGHT BREEZE LINGERS AND TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO BETWEEN 0 AND 15 BELOW. OUR LATEST FORECAST BRINGS WIND
CHILL VALUES BACK TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANYONE PLANNING TO SPENT TIME OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD DRESS
IN LAYERS AND COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, FROSTBITE COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 TO 30
MINUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. AIR
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO THE TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY WITH
EVEN LESS WIND COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN APPEAR
TO RISE INTO THE 20S TO MID-30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK LIKELY LEADING TO
MAINLY SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS AND A PERIOD OF SNOW. A NORTHERN
TRACK, HOWEVER, COULD LEAD TO MANY LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR
RISING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH COULD BRING SOME PLAIN RAIN AND/OR
A WINTRY MIX. THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE ONGOING 'DEEP FREEZE' STREAK AT ALBANY WHICH HAS NOW
REACHED 14 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
07/00Z. LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. AFTER 12Z, GRADUAL
CEILING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR KPSF, UPSLOPE SNOW COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR IFR VISIBILITIES. WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. IFR VISIBILITIES CAN OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ054-084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...15/33
AVIATION...05
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