189
FXUS61 KALY 070512
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WESTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY, VT, NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, MA AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON, NY FOR 3-6" SNOW 7 PM TONIGHT TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION
INCLUDING THE UPPER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY, VT FOR WIND CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS -25 TO -30F.
ALL OTHER COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME OVER EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL RE-COVERING ALREADY TREATED ROADS.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA
AND FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK. NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THU WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH A SNOW PTYPE IS FAVORED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND GEORGIAN BAY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING, AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CLIPPER AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH SETS UP NEAR EXTREME EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TIED TO AN OCEANIC CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS THE SNOW
MAY PICK UP IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BASED ON SOME OF THE
CAMS SUCH AS THE 3-KM HRRR AND THE NAMNEST. WE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS WITH A FLUFFY SNOW EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OF 14-18:1. TOTAL QPF CLOSE TO THE NBM WILL BE IN
THE 0.1-0.25" RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREENS, NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A DRY AND FLUFFY
SNOW IS EXPECTED.
TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGES FROM THE 1-4" OVER EASTERN NY WITH 2-4"
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH AND LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD CO CT WILL RECEIVE 2-3" WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASS
PIKE IN THE 2-4" RANGE. WE DID UPGRADE NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY WITH 3-6" DUE TO THE CLIPPER, INVERTED
TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WE ADDED SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CO. WITH EASTERN RENSSELAER
CO. TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-6" OF SNOW WITH THE EXTRA
BURST WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE, AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS ARE IN AND
ADVISORY FOR 3-6" OF SNOW AND WE INCLUDED WESTERN WINDHAM
CO. WITH BENNINGTON CO. ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS 1500 FT AND
HIGHER.
SNOW-COVERED AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AREA-
WIDE OVERNIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LEADING TO SOME
PATCHY AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH MAY RE-COVER OVER SOME ALREADY
TREATED RAMPS AND ROADS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH
THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BELOW
ZERO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE BY DAYBREAK AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ALONG AND EAST OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ANOTHER
BLAST OF FRIGID AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES ARE -2 TO -4 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL BASED ON
THE NAEFS FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THE EARLY PM. H850 TEMPS FALL CLOSE
TO -15C TO -25C OVER THE FORECAST AREA (COLDEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DACKS) WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL STEADY AND FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY ON IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS, EXCEPT COLDER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING. THE
INCREASE SAT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH AND SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. WE
BLENDED THE NBM90 WITH THE NBM FOR WINDS AND WIND GUSTS SAT PM-
SAT NIGHT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPER MIXING WILL AID IN THE STRONGER GUSTS. IT REMAINS WINDY
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPS FALLING TO 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS TO
REACH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, EXCEPT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE
FOR THE GLENS FALLS-NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION AND WASHINGTON
COUNTY. WE UPGRADED THE CAPITAL REGION, UPPER MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY, VT TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR
WIND CHILL, OR "FEELS- LIKE" TEMPS 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
OVERALL, WIND CHILLS 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON
IN THE BITTER, BLUSTERY, BRUTALLY, BONE- CHILLING COLD AIR
MASS. THE HEADLINES RUN UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON EARLY IN THE
DAY AND THEN WILL DECREASE WITH THE ANTICYLONE BUILDING IN.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK,
HIGH PEAKS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WIND
CHILL VALUES/ "FEELS-LIKE TEMPS" MAY FALL BACK TOWARD COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WITH TEMPS FALLING ZERO TO 10 BELOW
FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTHWARD AND 10-20 BELOW TO THE NORTH.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY SET UP FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
LATER.
ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
DRESS IN LAYERS AND COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, FROSTBITE COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 TO 30
MINUTES. OTHERWISE, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE,
EVEN WITH PETS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETS UP MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL, AS TEMPS MODERATE CLOSER TO FEB NORMALS. HIGHS ON
MON WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON TUE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH. A SYSTEM
FOR THE MID WEEK VARIES ON THE ENSEMBLES AND NBM GUIDANCE WITH
ITS TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHETHER A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW OCCURS. THE
LATEST NBM DATA INCORPORATED IN THE FORECAST SUPPORTS A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR MOST THE FORECAST AREA FOR WED-THU. WE STUCK WITH
THIS FOR NOW. IF THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THEN SNOW WILL BE SUPPORTED...IF IT PASS NORTH OF I-90 AND
UPSTATE NY, THEN A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLY RAIN
WOULD OCCUR. WE HAVE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON
WED AND THU. THE ONGOING 'DEEP FREEZE' STREAK AT ALBANY WHICH IS
NOW 14 CONSECUTIVE DAYS COULD END IF WE REACH 32F WED OR THU.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS STORM AND THE
PTYPE TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 12:10 AM EST...IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT ALB/POU/PSF DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW, ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT GFL FOR THE
TIME BEING. EXPECTING GFL TO ALSO TREND DOWN TO IFR VSBYS BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN, MAINLY IFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LOW-END MVFR VSBYS AT POU WHERE SNOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHTER. THEN, BETWEEN 10-13Z, COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING WITH IT A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONG W/NW WINDS
OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALB/GFL/POU AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT
PSF, WITH MAINLY IFR VSBYS EXPECTED DUE TO BOTH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND BLOWING OF SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AS WINDS REMAIN AT 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE
SNOW SHOWERS END, GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW
THAT MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS, ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD TREND
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR VSBYS IN
ADDITION TO CIGS, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLY, ESPECIALLY AT PSF WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ054-
084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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