228
FXUS61 KALY 071116
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR ACTIVE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT SNOW ALREADY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO STILL EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN TACONICS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. WIND CHILL VALUES STILL ON TRACK TO BE AS LOW AS 20 TO
35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
DAY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL
RE-COVERING ALREADY TREATED ROADS.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN
TO LIMIT EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK. NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THU WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH A SNOW PTYPE IS FAVORED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY AND CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. IT
LOOKS TO CROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AND WILL
BE CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT,
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
SOME REPORTS OF A COATING TO HALF INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO
FAR. BASED ON CAMS, INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR AND NAMNEST, THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BECOME STEADIER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS, WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON LATEST MRMS IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL NY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DESPITE THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF BEST FORCING, THE SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SO IT SHOULDN'T BE TOO HARD TO SQUEEZE OUT A QUICK INCH
OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY, AS THE COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO MAKE SOME
TREATMENTS NOT AS EFFECTIVE.
EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES, AS
THE UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH SOME UPSLOPE COULD EVEN CONTINUE FOR
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES FOR THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN TACONICS,
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 5" OR 6" WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
BLOWING SNOW, MAINLY FOR THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. THE FLUFFY
NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY AS SNOW
BLOWS AROUND AND SOME ROADS MAY GET RECOVERED FROM THE GUSTY
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE OCCURRING THANKS TO DEEP MIXING DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SOME GUSTS WILL
REACH 25 TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. WHILE THE WIND
PROBABLY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH DAMAGE, IT WILL
STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE COLD THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE, 850 HPA TEMPS WILL FALL TO AS
LOW AS -20 TO -25 C OVER NORTHERN AREAS. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BE NEARING 500 DM, WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN FOR A
RATHER COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THEY WILL RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND TEMPS WILL HOLD THERE OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT, DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS,
WITH LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BELOW ZERO. THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS, ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WHERE LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS STILL IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 20 TO
35 BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AS QUICK AS 10 TO
30 MINUTES ON EXPOSED SKIN AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE A REAL THREAT
FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE
ELEMENTS. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION EXCEPT THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, WHERE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED LESS
WIND IN THAT AREAS AND THE HIGHER CRITERIA FOR WARNING-LEVEL
WIND CHILL VALUES. NO MATTER THE HEADLINE, IT WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLD HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 1 PM SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY. WITH LOWS BACK
BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 20 BELOW ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND THERE WILL BE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. EACH DAY WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMER, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
PERHAPS ONCE AGAIN FINALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK TOWARDS
MID WEEK.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP (PROBABLY LIGHT SNOW) BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT
EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. LATEST NBM
SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR SNOW, SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK,
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THAT
POTENTIAL AS WELL, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AS OF 6:15 AM EST, MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBYS, ALTHOUGH POU IS VFR. THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING, EXPECTING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT ALB/PSF
DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT POU/GFL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SNOW SHOWERS END LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARDS
MVFR VSBYS AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR VSBYS BY SUNSET, EXCEPT AT PSF
WHERE MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH BLOWING SNOW COMING TO AN END. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR THIS
MORNING, TRENDING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE W/NW AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35-40KT. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING,
ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY SUBSIDE TO 25-35 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF) AFTER
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
W/NW AT AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING,
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER 06-09Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ054-
084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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