730
FXUS61 KALY 071802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN
GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WIND CHILL VALUES STILL ON TRACK TO BE AS LOW AS 20 TO 35 BELOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS ALL THE COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES /EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/
WERE STARTED EARLIER AS 1 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN
TO LIMIT EXPOSURE.
2. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THU WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH A SNOW PTYPE IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE OCCURRING THANKS TO DEEP MIXING DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WIND PROBABLY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE, IT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE THE COLD THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION, AS WELL AS
THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE, 850 HPA TEMPS WILL FALL TO AS
LOW AS -20 TO -25 C OVER NORTHERN AREAS. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BE NEARING 500 DM, WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN FOR A
RATHER COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THEY WILL RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND TEMPS WILL HOLD THERE OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT, DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS,
WITH LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BELOW ZERO. THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS, ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WHERE LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS STILL IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 20 TO
35 BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AS QUICK AS 10 TO
30 MINUTES ON EXPOSED SKIN AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE A REAL THREAT
FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE
ELEMENTS. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION EXCEPT THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, WHERE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED LESS
WIND IN THAT AREAS AND THE HIGHER CRITERIA FOR WARNING-LEVEL
WIND CHILL VALUES. NO MATTER THE HEADLINE, IT WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLD HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 1 PM SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY. WITH LOWS BACK
BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 20 BELOW ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND THERE WILL BE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. EACH DAY WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMER, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
PERHAPS ONCE AGAIN FINALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK TOWARDS
MID WEEK.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP (PROBABLY LIGHT SNOW) BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT
EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. LATEST NBM
SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR SNOW, SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK,
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THAT
POTENTIAL AS WELL, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO RECENT SNOWFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AT KPSF AND
KALB. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z
AT KPSF AND KALB. FOR KGFL AND KPOU, WINDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH FOR
BLOWING SNOW TO BE LESS IMPACTFUL BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z AS GUSTS
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT FOR KPSF AND KALB, WIND
GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO
BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, IMPROVING TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15/27
AVIATION...05
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