040
FXUS61 KALY 071853
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN
GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WIND CHILL VALUES STILL ON TRACK TO BE AS LOW AS 20 TO 35 BELOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS ALL THE COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES /EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/
WERE STARTED EARLIER AS 1 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE
TAKEN TO LIMIT EXPOSURE.
2. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUE INTO WED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IT'S BEEN BLUSTERY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER THE HELDERBERGS AND INTO THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. KALB HAS HAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE. THE SPS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AS
GUSTS HAVE LOWERED CLOSER TO 35-45 MPH ON THE NYS MESONET AND ON
THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. THESE GUSTS ARE DUE TO THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CENTRAL
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD, AS
WELL AS DEEPER MIXING. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
25-40 MPH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO CLOSE TO 10 BELOW OVER THE
WESTERN DACKS. A FEW LOWER 10S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE
COLD TEMPS AND THE GUSTY WINDS PROMPTED US TO START ALL THE COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES NOW INSTEAD OF 6 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY HITTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OR FLIRTING
WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ALREADY.
THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, BUT THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
START TO DIMINISH. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR SO OVER THE NORTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELED. EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED ON SNOW COVERED ROADS AND RAMPS.
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO
LOWER TO -18C TO -25C EARLY TONIGHT UNDER THE COLD MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLY, NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS, PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA,
NORTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT BELOW ZERO READINGS 0 TO -9F OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
THE WINDS WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GENERATE WIND CHILL OR
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS OF 15 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE, AS QUICK AS 10 TO 30 MINUTES ON
EXPOSED SKIN. HYPOTHERMIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A REAL THREAT FOR
ANYONE OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE ELEMENTS.
PETS SHOULD SPEND LIMITED TIME OUTDOORS. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
SINCE WIND CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH -30F. THE HEADLINES RUN UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON EARLY IN THE
DAY AND THEN WILL DECREASE WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WIND CHILL VALUES/ "FEELS-LIKE TEMPS" MAY FALL BACK TOWARD COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 10 TO 25 BELOW RANGE FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WITH TEMPS FALLING 0 TO 15 BELOW IF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP, THEN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK MAY REACH -20F OR COLDER.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHILLY DAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER TO MID 20S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ON TUE WITH A CYCLONE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE A CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO
TUE PM INTO TUE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. HIGHS ON TUE GET INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN
TEMPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MAY ELEVATE INTO THE MID 20S TO
MID/UPPER 30S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. IF ALBANY GETS TO THE FREEZING MARK, THEN THE
"DEEP FREEZE" STREAK WHICH IS NOW 15 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WOULD
END.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO RECENT SNOWFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AT KPSF AND
KALB. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z
AT KPSF AND KALB. FOR KGFL AND KPOU, WINDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH FOR
BLOWING SNOW TO BE LESS IMPACTFUL BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z AS GUSTS
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT FOR KPSF AND KALB, WIND
GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO
BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, IMPROVING TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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