253
FXUS61 KALY 081813
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS
OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS OF 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. ALL EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT
BE TAKEN TO LIMIT EXPOSURE. ADDITIONAL DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CATSKILLS,
TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.
2. DESPITE A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY COMPLETELY SKIES OVER THE REGION
THANKS TO THE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. LAST EVENING'S KALY
SOUNDING SHOWED 850 HPA TEMPS AS LOW AS -26 C WITH A STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE THAT LEVEL. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND SOME
GUSTS STILL IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN THE ENTIRE REGION IS NOW BELOW
ZERO, WITH SOME READINGS IN THE -10 TO -17 F RANGE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BRUTAL COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. SOME GUSTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES THIS MORNING, MAKING
WIND CHILL VALUES FEEL 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME MIXING WITH STILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS STILL REACHING 25 MPH OR SO, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN, SO THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LOOK
TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME LOWS AS COLD AS -10 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE LIGHTER WINDS, IT STILL LOOKS BREEZY
ENOUGH FOR THE CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS TO
STILL SEE SOME GUSTS REACHING 20 MPH OR SO. BASED ON THE
EXPECTED COLD AND LINGERING BREEZE, WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WON'T ISSUE FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA AND SOUTHERN
VT) AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEYS. MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S WITH DIMINISHING WIND
SHOULD FINALLY END THE WIND CHILL AND EXTREME COLD THREATS FOR
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS, THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER TRACKS CLOSE TO THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
AREAS THANKS TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
AS IT DIVES FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST AREAS
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGAN ON SOUTH AND EAST MAY
NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP, BUT NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, WITH SOME LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LATEST NBM SHOWS
ABOUT A 50-80% FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY ON NORTHWARD TO SEE 1" OF
SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 4" IS UNDER
10% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
WHERE THE PROBABILITY IS 20%-50%. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MODERATED, THEY STILL LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW,
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHERE THE THE CLOUD DEPTH MAY NOT
BE AS GREAT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
BE TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY
ON TRACK, P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS IS STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE, KEEPING
THIS CHEAT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU BEFORE COMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT KALB AND KPSF
WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS THROUGH 4Z, WHEN WINDS
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27/15
AVIATION...05
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