190
FXUS61 KALY 081854
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR WIND
CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS OF 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. ALL EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
2. DESPITE A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CORE OF THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
IS STILL GENERATING WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS PM/TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INITIALLY, THE WIND CHILLS
WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE, BUT THE
"FEELS-LIKE" AIR TEMPS COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUES. THE SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A DEEP SNOWPACK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL/NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WONT HAVE TO PLUMMET MUCH TOO.
WE WENT WELL BELOW THE NBM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH AND EAST. THE NBM
STRUGGLES MIGHTILY IN RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENTS. WE SIDED
CLOSER WITH THE COLDER MAV/ECM MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT COLDER.
LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW WILL BE COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST, AND EXPECT 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME ISOLATED
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/GFL AREA
AND SOUTHERN VT COULD GET TO 20 TO 25F BELOW ZERO. THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH READINGS OF
10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 30 BELOW ZERO
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OR
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE
ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD FINALLY END THE WIND CHILL AND EXTREME
COLD THREATS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON-MON NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS, BUT STILL
COLDER THAN FEB NORMALS. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM
BY TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRAL ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. WE CONTINUE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY RANGE BASED ON THE NBM WITH SOME CATEGORICAL VALUES
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PARK. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR PROBABILITIES OF
>2" OF SNOW FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 06Z/WED ARE 35-75% FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL REGION, LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN
SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. HIGHS
ON TUE REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD OCCUR
FOR THE TUE AFTERNOON COMMUTE WITH THE SNOW.
THE FORECAST AREA MAY GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WED. IT WILL BE BRISK AND WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING MAX TEMPS COULD GET ABOUT 32F AT ALBANY FOR THE
FIRST IN 2.5 WEEKS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO THE
LOWER/MID 30S WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT
A LOT OF SPREAD AN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM. A MAINLY DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES OF SNOW LATE SUN PM INTO
SUN NIGHT BASED ON THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU BEFORE COMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT KALB AND KPSF
WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS THROUGH 4Z, WHEN WINDS
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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