400
FXUS61 KALY 090651
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE ADKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90 TUESDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE.
2. THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL (>4") SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
3. AFTER A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEK, A COASTAL STORM MAY BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:50 AM EST...1030 MB SFC HIGH IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS ARE STILL AT 5-10 KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES, WHICH IS
KEEPING THE BL MORE MIXED. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL CREATE NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE BELOW 0 FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS ACROSS THE ADKS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS. RIGHT NOW, OLD FORGE IS THE COLDEST SPOT AT -26F
PER THE NYS MESONET. THE LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS FEEL
EVEN COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SOUTHERN ADKS, AND HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FLIRT WITH EXTREME COLD CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT/VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, NOT EXPECTING THESE EXTREME
COLD VALUES TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING, WHICH OUR NEIGHBORING WFOS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ABOVE COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10S AND 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP VERY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET, BUT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM REACHING COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES,
AS WILL AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/CLIPPER. AS THE SYSTM'S WARM FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 850 MB LLJ
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 50 KT LEADING TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE TERRAIN, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE THERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING (AND LESS
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS). FOR THESE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY, INTO THE 3-5" RANGE.
THE NBM ALSO SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL,
WITH A 30-50% CHANCE FOR >4" OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME TARGETED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IF CONFIDENCE IN THESE SNOWFALL
TOTALS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GIVEN THAT SNOW LOOKS TO START
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST, THE TUESDAY PM
COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED.
ONE THING TO NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 10:1 COMPARED TO OUR LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE DGZ LOOKS FAIRLY NARROW AND HIGH UP IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION BY EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. SO, MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY, MOIST CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SNOWFALL
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, A 1030 MB SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH NW FLOW, COLD ADVECTION, AND DEEP MIXING, WE
BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FROM THE NBM INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, AND
MAY NEED TO BUMP WINDS UP EVEN MORE THAN THIS. WITH THE SFC HIGH
GETTING CLOSER BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY, WE SHOULD THEN SEE
WINDS/GUSTS START TO DIMINISH. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
TO FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE-SCLAE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOMEWHERE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS AT THE TAIL
END OF THE FORECAST SO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WITH A
MISS OUT TO SEA AND A TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR SNOW
TO MIX WITH RAIN BOTH ON THE TABLE, ALONG WITH A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN. THIS PERIOD WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY, BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW TO POSSIBLY SEVERAL MORE DAYS
BEFORE DETAILS SURROUNDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM BEGIN TO BETTER
COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
NO PRECIP WITH CLEAR SKIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION AND ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK, KEEPING IT CLOUD-FREE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL, WITH JUST A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE AT KALB AND KPOU. KPSF IS SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
(AROUND 10 KTS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT WINDS THERE WILL
GRADUALLY COME DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VFR. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING OR
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL, IT WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SITES. DURING DAYTIME MIXING, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS FOR ALL SITES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
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