507
FXUS61 KALY 091930
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
230 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SNOW FROM A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS AND AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2) WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS OVERALL LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF ITS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A TRANQUIL, ALBEIT COLD, DAY TODAY, CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
INITIALLY, A PRECEDING SURFACE WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION, PROVIDING A SUFFICIENT SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR, WEST-
TO-EAST PROGRESSING BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER,
CLIPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND SINK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THOUGH REMAIN TUCKED JUST
INSIDE SOUTHERN CANADA. A BRIEF, FEW-HOUR BREAK IN SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR IS FILTERED IN IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE, BUT SNOW
WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK IN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY
SURFACE CLIPPER LOW ALSO DEEPENS JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN FURTHER AND TRAVERSE SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE CONCLUDED, BUT MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN/ENHANCE HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS ALSO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3" TO LOCALIZED 6" ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS AND THE RESULTING MINOR IMPACTS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL RANGE FROM ~0.5" TO
3" WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE LOCATED IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER-
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS COULD SEE
SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 4" OR SO, BUT THESE AMOUNTS WERE
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
NOW, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS TO NOTE.
FIRST, SNOW WILL INTERSECT THE EVENING COMMUTE TOMORROW, AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN, ROADWAYS
COULD BECOME SLICK DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXTRA CAUTION IS
ADVISED DURING THIS PERIOD OF ROUTINE TRAVEL. THE SECOND IS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH SNOW
OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR SOME TOMORROW
EVENING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL
WARM NOSE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT, IN COMBINATION WITH LOW
CLOUD BASES, WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SUPERCOOLED DROPS TO REACH THE
DGZ. SINCE THE WARM NOSE DOESN'T ACTUALLY CROSS THE 0C ISOTHERM
AND THE MOST CONSISTENT MOISTURE FALLS BELOW THE LCL, WE
SUBSTITUTED FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AREAS WHERE THE NBM INPUT
FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY, MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN THE DURATION, AMOUNTS, AND
TIMING OF THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. LUCKILY, WITH NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF TO BEGIN WITH, A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OVER
WHICH THIS IS POSSIBLE (+- 6 HOURS), AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WOULD BE TO JUST
INCREASE THE SLICKNESS OF ROAD AND WALKING SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A STORM SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS GREAT
OF A LEAD TIME, THE DETAILS OF THE STORM'S TRACK, RESULTING
PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND OVERALL IMPACT (IF ANY) ON OUR REGION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN
AND LOWER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BUT
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UP TO 18Z/TUE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 4-8 KT TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZDZ.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33
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