392
FXUS61 KALY 100653
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY FOR UP TO 3-5" OF SNOW, AND TO THE SOUTHERN GREENS FOR UP
TO 4-7" WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO
SNOWFALL TOTALS. ALSO, NEW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR A GLAZE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN. ALSO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AM WITH A COMPACT UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-
90) ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90) WILL
LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM
TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:50 AM EST...GOES 16 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, THESE CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 10S IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN CT TO AROUND 0 IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
THIS MORNING STARTS OFF DRY AND CHILLY (ALBEIT WARMER THAN THE
LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS), BUT AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC
CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, WE ARE EXPECTING A BAND OF SNOW TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 LATE THIS MORNING (WEST OF
I-87) AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (EAST OF I-87). PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WITH STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT, A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN, AND CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ULL,
FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 850
MB SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. WITH THIS LIFT INTERSECTING THE DGZ THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 30-40% CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO REACH 1" PER HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT. THE BEST CHANCE IS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, THIS
EVENING'S COMMUTE COULD BE SLIPPERY AND SNOWY.
BY 00Z, PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARDS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A WARM NOSE ALOFT, LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
MIXED PRECIP, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS HAS BEEN. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HERE GENERALLY LOOKS TO
FALL MOSTLY AFTER THE END OF THE PM COMMUTE. AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING (03-06Z), MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN FROM
THE WEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOSS OF CLOUD ICE. SFC TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, SO THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AND END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY
12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARDS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH FROM A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OFF TO OUR EAST, AND THERE
WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS.
GIVEN THE ABOVE, THERE WERE SEVERAL HEADLINE CHANGES MADE WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FIRST, SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN
FULTON COUNTY WERE ADDED TO THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (3-5" FOR THESE AREAS). THE SOUTHERN
GREENS WERE ALSO ADDED, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS HERE (UP TO 4-7")
WITH A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE THROUGH THURSDAY AM. FINALLY, A
NEW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 3 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY
FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, AND
WESTERN CT/MA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A GLAZE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THURSDAY, ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS
WINDS WEAKEN, TURN MORE TO THE NORTH, AND THE ULL TRACKS FURTHER
TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT A DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, SO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH LOOK
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL NW FLOW CHANNELED AREAS WHERE
SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION, BUT 18 AND 00Z GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT A COMPACT ULL/TPV WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
UPSTATE NY OR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
THIS SMALL SYSTEM, BUT WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING AT
LEAST SOME IMPACT, WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGH-
TERRAIN AREAS, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER, BUT WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS TO FEATURE
A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR
REGION, AND IT MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX INTERACTION (OR LACK
THEREOF) BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS.
A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL FORECAST OUTCOMES REMAIN ON THE TABLE,
WITH A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA POSSIBLE, AS IT A STORM TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT ANY SNOW MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY -SN WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT KPOU SO WILL MENTION A PROB30 THERE. -SN WILL BECOME
SPOTTY AT KALB/KPSF BY EARLY EVENING, THEN A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z
WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE WARM
LAYER ALOFT AT KPOU, WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF -PL/FZRA IS
MENTIONED. THE STEADY PRECIP THEN ENDS BETWEEN 02Z-04Z, HOWEVER
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PATCHY FZDZ
MAY THEN OCCUR. WILL MENTION PROB30 AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-11
KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ047-051-058>061-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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