113
FXUS61 KALY 250551
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
IN VALLEY AREAS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS LATER IN THE DAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL.
2) THE POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOWFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT THERE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOME MINOR IMPACTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED FOR VALLEY
AREAS, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION, WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR THE ALBANY AREA.
HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, SO LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THE COMMUTE WILL BE
A LITTLE SLIPPERY IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND FOR UNTREATED SURFACES.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION, THERE LOOKS TO BE
A LULL FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 30S, ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS, WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED WITHIN THE STORM'S WARM SECTOR. AS THE
CLIPPER'S COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BATCH OF
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE-TYPE SHOWERS. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN VALLEY
AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMIC COOLING AND PRECIP RATE SHOULD HELP
GENERALLY KEEP IT SNOW FOR MOST OF IT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THESE SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND SQUALL-LIKE, ALTHOUGH
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A QUICK
FLASH FREEZE AND WIND GUSTS WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG. 3KM NAM DOES
SOME ELEVATED SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES, SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING
STILL TO MONITOR. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IMPACTS FROM
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON NORTH,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY START TO
DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW, AS COLDER AIR
WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WANE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, AS TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE WARM ADVECTION,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE EFFECT MAY
BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE HEAVILY FORESTED AND SUPERCELL POPULATED
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HERKIMER AND SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOST ENSEMBLES NOW SHOW ANY
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, AND IT WILL BE
JUST A FAST MOVING FLAT WAVE. AS A RESULT, PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 1" OR
MORE IS NOW UNDER 10 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS, THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DOES
NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK. WHILE WE MAY AVOID WINTER-IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE
MAY BE ADDITIONAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME WINTRY-WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY VARIABLE
ON THOSE SOLUTIONS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSE TO THE NBM
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z/WED TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH
SNOWFALL OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT TO A CLIPPER LOW. THE CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO 1.5-3.0
KFT AGL WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE COUPLED WITH VSBYS LOWERING
TO 3/4SM TO 2SM IN THE LIGHT SNOW. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO
BRING IN THE SNOW, AND THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE CONTINUED AT
ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL 14-16Z/WED. VSBYS WILL RISE BACK THE
VFR, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR IN THE 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL RANGE
MOST OF THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z/WED TO 03Z/THU WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF
LAPSES TO IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE. PRO30 GROUPS BRING IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS 22Z-01Z AT KGFL, AND 00Z-03Z/THU FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN REFINE THE THREAT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED SQUALL. WIDESPREAD HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN
10 KT IN THE MID MORNING, AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. WIND SHEAR GROUPS
WERE ADDED TO ALL THE TAF SITES, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE
TO 25-45 KT. THE LLWS GROUPS CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z-17Z/WED. THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 8-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT. THE
WINDS VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
082.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...15
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