639
FXUS61 KALY 250655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY AND BENNINGTON COUNTY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT DUE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT
MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
2) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS APPROACHING WESTERN NY AS OF
150 AM. RADAR AND OBS SHOWING AN AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND A WARM FRONT, ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. THIS
SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST AND DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3-6 AM. BASED ON THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND
LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE, THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A ~2-4 HOUR
PERIOD SNOW THIS MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EARLY PART
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK IN THE
SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN A PSEUDO WARM
SECTOR, AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THE PARENT CYCLONE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SE CANADA. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS (A MORE SOLID LINE
FROM THE 3-KM NAM) ALONG THE COLD FRONT STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING LOOKS TO BE 4-8 PM FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WHICH IS WHERE THE SQUALLS
COULD AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE SQUALLS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK EAST INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST
BETWEEN 8 PM-12 AM BEFORE DISSIPATING. A QUICK COATING TO HALF
INCH ALONG WITH RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SQUALLS. THE FLASH-FREEZE COMPONENT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY THOUGH DUE TO A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE DROP,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TONIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, W. MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE N.
FULTON AND BENNINGTON COUNTY ABOVE 1500 FT TO ACCOUNT FOR S-SW
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE 3-6" WITH 3-7" IN THE SW ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY 1-3"
WILL OCCUR WITH 2-4" IN THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. LOWEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE HELDERBERGS/CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SAT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 40S ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST 40F DEGREE DAY AT ALBANY SINCE
JAN 22. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SAT NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO EITHER SE CANADA OR
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN/WHERE A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD
TRACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME NBM INDICATING CHANCE POPS
ON MON, AND AGAIN LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG
THE GUIDANCE. NBM 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES ENDING 7 AM TUE FOR > 3"
OF SNOW ARE 30-40%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z/WED TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH
SNOWFALL OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT TO A CLIPPER LOW. THE CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO 1.5-3.0
KFT AGL WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE COUPLED WITH VSBYS LOWERING
TO 3/4SM TO 2SM IN THE LIGHT SNOW. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO
BRING IN THE SNOW, AND THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE CONTINUED AT
ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL 14-16Z/WED. VSBYS WILL RISE BACK THE
VFR, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR IN THE 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL RANGE
MOST OF THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z/WED TO 03Z/THU WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF
LAPSES TO IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE. PRO30 GROUPS BRING IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS 22Z-01Z AT KGFL, AND 00Z-03Z/THU FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN REFINE THE THREAT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED SQUALL. WIDESPREAD HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN
10 KT IN THE MID MORNING, AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. WIND SHEAR GROUPS
WERE ADDED TO ALL THE TAF SITES, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE
TO 25-45 KT. THE LLWS GROUPS CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z-17Z/WED. THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 8-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT. THE
WINDS VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
082.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...15
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