049
FXUS61 KALY 251752
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY AND BENNINGTON COUNTY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT DUE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT
MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
2) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS APPROACHING WESTERN NY AS OF
150 AM. RADAR AND OBS SHOWING AN AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND A WARM FRONT, ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. THIS
SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST AND DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3-6 AM. BASED ON THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND
LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE, THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A ~2-4 HOUR
PERIOD SNOW THIS MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EARLY PART
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK IN THE
SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN A PSEUDO WARM
SECTOR, AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THE PARENT CYCLONE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SE CANADA. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS (A MORE SOLID LINE
FROM THE 3-KM NAM) ALONG THE COLD FRONT STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING LOOKS TO BE 4-8 PM FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WHICH IS WHERE THE SQUALLS
COULD AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE SQUALLS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK EAST INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST
BETWEEN 8 PM-12 AM BEFORE DISSIPATING. A QUICK COATING TO HALF
INCH ALONG WITH RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SQUALLS. THE FLASH-FREEZE COMPONENT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY THOUGH DUE TO A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE DROP,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TONIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, W. MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE N.
FULTON AND BENNINGTON COUNTY ABOVE 1500 FT TO ACCOUNT FOR S-SW
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE 3-6" WITH 3-7" IN THE SW ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY 1-3"
WILL OCCUR WITH 2-4" IN THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. LOWEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE HELDERBERGS/CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SAT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 40S ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST 40F DEGREE DAY AT ALBANY SINCE
JAN 22. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SAT NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO EITHER SE CANADA OR
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN/WHERE A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD
TRACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME NBM INDICATING CHANCE POPS
ON MON, AND AGAIN LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG
THE GUIDANCE. NBM 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES ENDING 7 AM TUE FOR > 3"
OF SNOW ARE 30-40%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVC CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS LOOK TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
00-06Z/THU AND HAVE ADDRESSED WITH TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS. VSBYS
COULD LOWER TO IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF. AT
KPOU, IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GET. CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH THE
NEXT TAF UPDATE. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS, A TREND BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MOST SITES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
EXCEPT MIXED MVFR/VFR AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
082.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page