856
FXUS61 KALY 261131
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR N. HERKIMER, N. FULTON,
HAMILTON AND BENNINGTON COUNTIES. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ENDED. SOME WEAK/MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THIS
MORNING.
LOWERING CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND SUPPRESS THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH/EAST INTO OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SAT IN A PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. A SW FLOW SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS. EVEN WITH A
SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SAT P.M., DEEPER MIXING
IN THE SHORT TIME POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
45-50F TEMPERATURES FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND I-90
SOUTH. THE LAST 40F TEMPERATURE AT ALB WAS ON JAN 22, SO IT'S
BEEN OVER A MONTH.
THE WARMUP WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A NW FLOW RESULTS IN COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OF < 1" LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. NBM POPS HAVE RISEN TO 30-40% WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN SUN THROUGH MON
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 1040 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS INDICATING 850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS SUN NIGHT WITH SIMILAR LOWS MON NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DUE TO THE THE STRONG 1040 MB HIGH EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
ACROSS OUR REGION, THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUE TO LOWER. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH
RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUE, ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST COULD BRING SOME
SNOW LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ANY
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD BE SUBTLE SO RESULTING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX(PWSSI) IS
INDICATING A 20-50% CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS, WITH THE GREATEST
PROBS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ANOTHER
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS PROGRESSING ESE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KALB
(THROUGH 13Z) AND KPSF (THROUGH 15Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS FROM 3500-5000 FEET
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...91
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