699
FXUS61 KALY 261818
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR COLDER WEATHER FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH MONDAY'S SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH, MODELS NOW
SUGGEST NEXT CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER MAY BE LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS TRANSITION TO COLDER
WEATHER.
2) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EARLY ON SATURDAY, AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT, HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS. VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE SOME SNOW MELT IS
EXPECTED, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED, AS THE WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF AND DEWPOINTS WON'T GET
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL. THE FRONT WILL CROSS DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPS WON'T IMMEDIATELY DROP DUE TO GOOD MIXING
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND WILL SLIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED, BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
JUST A COATING TO AN INCH, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS DOES SUGGEST
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST NBM SHOWS JUST A 25%
CHANCE OR LESS OF GREATER THAN 1" AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 4" OR
MORE IS BASICALLY 2% OR LESS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE LIGHT
AMOUNTS, SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RETURN OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ON
SUNDAY TO THE MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. EVEN COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE LARGE 1040 HPA HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BE SETTLING CLOSE TO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS, WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY COLD FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING IT'S EARLY MARCH,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE MID-WEEK
AS A WAVE OF PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SO THERE MAY BE
A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PROBABILITY FOR 1" OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IS 20-30%, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS GENERALLY UNDER 10%
FOR 4" EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN (WHICH IS STILL GENERALLY
25% OR LESS). THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO THIS IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME AND CHANGES ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF NOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, WITH FEW TO
SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 3500-5000 FT DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THEN, JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 8000-
10000 FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY 00-03Z THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WHEN THEY INCREASE
TO 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SE AT ALB/GFL AND TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE S/SW
AT POU/PSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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