381
FXUS61 KALY 271818
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE LEANED HIGHER THAN NBM POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AND LEANED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL.
WINTRY PRECIP STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BASED ON
POSSIBLE TEMP PROFILES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS TRANSITION TO COLDER
WEATHER.
2) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
THE MILDEST DAY IN THE AREA SINCE MID JANUARY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, MAINLY FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS, BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR WILL START
TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION DURING EVENING HOURS. ALL AREAS SHOULD
BE FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
AS THE FRONT SETTLED SOUTHWARD, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVER THE AREA, BUT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AREAS. TOTAL QPF IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL, ALTHOUGH MODELS RUNS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATELY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY HIGH
TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN AREAS). NBM SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF 1" AMD
10-30% CHANCE FOR 2", ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST SLIGHTLY LEANS A
LITTLE MORE ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR
SOME OF THE RECENT TRENDS. STILL, AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SUB-
ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND UNTREATED
SURFACES.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, IT LOOKS RATHER COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE 1040 HPA WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING ON TUESDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -15
TO -20 C AT 850 HPA WITHIN THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND
HUDSON VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AFTER HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY, LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL CLOSE TO
ZERO OR THE SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS.
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY, BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME
MODERATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE REGION. AS A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA, SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG AN ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW,
ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, AS WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. STILL, ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIP FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
AFTER A BREAK BRIEF FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN, NORTHERN
AREAS MAY BE SEE SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP, ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE WARMER TO START WITH THIS EVENT, SO SNOW
OR MIXED PRECIP MAY BE MORE LIMITED. THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILES
AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO SOME
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST, BUT THE TREND FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTED BY
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 12:45
PM EST, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THIS TIME. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MIST AS THE WARM,
MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER SNOWPACK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS AT GFL WHERE THIS WAS ADDED TO THE TAF. FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, SO HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THE
CHANCE FOR SOME FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. THAT SAID, WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBYS OR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF OUR REGION, CONDITIONS RETURN TO MAINLY MVFR TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALB/GFL TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF POU, AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET TO PSF UNTIL AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SE AT ALL TERMINALS AT 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BUT ALB TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SE TOMORROW
MORNING. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT GFL AND PSF LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
POU, LOW-LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LLWS
CONCERNS, AND AT ALB SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT LLWS CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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