030
FXUS61 KALY 280609
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LED TO FURTHER
REFINEMENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-80%)
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE ADKS, AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE A
LOW CHANCE (20-50%) OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BRIEF WARMUP REMAINS ON TAP FOR TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
2. CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A
WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND LATER
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME ON EXACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WAS PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
GOING THROUGH TODAY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
EAST INTO THE REGION, ARRIVING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADKS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH COVERAGE MOST FAVORED MAINLY
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES NEARER TO THE BEST LIFT (WHICH
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER).
REGARDLESS, SOME CAMS SHOW LOW CHANCES (20-50%) OF SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANY PRECIPITATION OR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS, MOST WILL ENJOY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING WELL INTO THE 30S (TERRAIN)
AND 40S TO NEAR 50 (VALLEYS).
AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION, A STRONG PUSH OF
CVA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT, USHERING IN MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH CAA BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW (SOME MIX MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY) FOR MOST. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH THE LATEST
NBM FAVORING A WIDESPREAD 1-3". SOME CAMS, MOST NOTABLY THE
HRRR AND RRFS, SHOW HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH MORE QPF INITIALIZED,
THOUGH THEY LOOK TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHER END OF
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 88/90
CORRIDORS INTO THE BERKSHIRES PER LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
(50-70% OF AMOUNTS > 1" HERE), THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADKS. STILL, AMOUNTS REMAIN FAVORED
TO BE SUB-ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
AND UNTREATED SURFACES.
ONCE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL KEEP US DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD THOUGH WITH 925-850
HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO WELL BELOW
ZERO (HIGH TERRAIN), AND HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS
(TERRAIN) TO MID 20S (VALLEYS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS AFDS, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
A CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME BEGINNING MID NEXT
WEEK. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVE IN THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, AS A WARM FRONT AND JET STREAK ALOFT
INCREASE LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY, ALL
SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAVORED, WITH A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND
RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST NBM CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCES (70- 100%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA AS MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY GETS BETTER ON STORM
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS INCONSISTENCY ON SNOW AMOUNTS
DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT WARM FRONT PLACEMENT, SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS FRONT REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD, ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIP FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS ONE MAY FEATURE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW FOR THE REGION AS THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THIS IS FAR OUT, ADDITIONAL
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A TREND
MORE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS IS INDICATED IN THE CPC 6-10
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...SKC CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS AT
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 12 UTC SO UPDATED TAFS
TO REMOVE IFR MENTION TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
OUR DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM TRACKING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND AS ITS
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING, LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. GIVEN OVERALL WEAK
FORCING AND MOISTURE, ONLY SHOW PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR VIS FROM RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AT GFL AS SHOWERS TRACK OVERSPREAD MAINLY FROM 15 - 18
UTC. THEN, WE SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FOR DRY WEATHER ALBEIT
LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVERHEAD BEFORE ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INCLUDED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP AT PSF FOR SHOWERS 21 TO 00 UTC
AND MVFR CIGS AS THIS BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD. THEN, AFTER THIS
BOUNDARY EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00 UTC/01, STILL EXPECTING A
QUICK TREND BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT GFL AND POU TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS REMAINING NEAR 5-9 KT AT ALB. WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE LLWS
DEVELOPING AT GFL, ALB AND PSF BY 10-12 UTC AS WINDS AT 2000FT
INCREASE TO 35-40KTS. THEN, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 14-15 UTC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5-10KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 15-20KTS, LIKELY ENDING THE LLWS POTENTIAL. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 20-22 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE
WAKE OF OUR COLD FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FOR
A SHORT PERIOD REACHING 8-12KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...31
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