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FXUS61 KALY 281820
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS AND MAX
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX FOR TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON AMOUNTS AND AREAL COVERAGE.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A WINTRY MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A STEADY PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 DURING
SUNDAY MORNING. A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
GIVEN TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY
STICK TO ROAD SURFACES AND CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPITAL REGION AND TACONICS WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY LINGER.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ADDED FRESH SNOW COVER, TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY (PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 10 TO 15 BELOW), WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM SUNDAY NIGHT, SO WIND CHILL/"FEELS-
LIKE" TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) AND THEN RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90. 13Z/SAT NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 AM WED FOR >3" SNOWFALL
ARE 30-50% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, AND GENERALLY 10-30% NEAR
AND SOUTH. SIMILAR 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >6" OF SNOW ENDING 7 AM
WED ARE 10-30 % FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, GREATEST ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE WARMER ALOFT OVERALL
COMPARED TO THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR LINGERING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
13Z/SAT NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 PM FRIDAY FOR >0.10" FLAT ICE
ACCUMULATION ARE 10-30% ACROSS THE REGION, GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS TO KPSF AS SOME UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE,
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SUN. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MVFR AT THIS TIME, WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AT KGFL AFTER 16Z/SUN, HOWEVER SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT 18Z/SUN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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