223
FXUS61 KALY 282331
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS AND MAX
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX FOR TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON AMOUNTS AND AREAL COVERAGE.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A WINTRY MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A STEADY PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 DURING
SUNDAY MORNING. A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
GIVEN TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY
STICK TO ROAD SURFACES AND CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPITAL REGION AND TACONICS WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY LINGER.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ADDED FRESH SNOW COVER, TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY (PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 10 TO 15 BELOW), WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM SUNDAY NIGHT, SO WIND CHILL/"FEELS-
LIKE" TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) AND THEN RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90. 13Z/SAT NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 AM WED FOR >3" SNOWFALL
ARE 30-50% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, AND GENERALLY 10-30% NEAR
AND SOUTH. SIMILAR 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >6" OF SNOW ENDING 7 AM
WED ARE 10-30 % FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, GREATEST ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE WARMER ALOFT OVERALL
COMPARED TO THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR LINGERING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
13Z/SAT NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 PM FRIDAY FOR >0.10" FLAT ICE
ACCUMULATION ARE 10-30% ACROSS THE REGION, GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
09-12Z/SUN WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS. SNOW
WILL BE MOST FAVORED AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU WHERE FM GROUPS AND
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. KGFL MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW SO ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SITES BETWEEN 14-18Z/SUN WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR FOR MOST SITES BEFORE 00Z/MON. KPSF MAY BE THE
LAST SITE FOR MVFR CIGS TO LIFT BACK TO VFR DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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