414
FXUS61 KALY 010702
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING A LIGHT
SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING WHICH CAN LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAINLY
THROUGH MIDDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
THAT CHANGES TO RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-90. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF WINTRY MIX.
3) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RIPEN AND PARTIALLY MELT THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK. WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING RAIN PLUS
MELTING SNOW MAY START TO BREAK-UP EXISTING RIVER ICE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC BENEATH IT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS SHOWN IN THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PERIOD
OF SNOW EXPANDING INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BY 09 - 12 UTC THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LIKELY
COOLING INTO THE 20S IN RESPONSE TO WET-BULBING DIABATIC COOLING
PROCESSES ONCE SNOW BEGINS, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO INCOMING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFT BRIEFLY
OVERLAPPING WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO SNOW CAN TURN
STEADY FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS MORNING, TRACKING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12 - 15 UTC BEFORE
FINALLY EXITING TO OUR EAST BY 18 UTC, PUTTING AN END TO THE
SNOW. GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE SNOW AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS,
ONLY EXPECTING COATING TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A 20 TO 40% CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS
EXCEED 1 INCH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
AFTER SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS TURN
A BIT BREEZY USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
NORTHEAST (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE BRIEF WARM-UP WE HAD
YESTERDAY) UNDER CLEARING SKIES. LARGE SCALE AND STRENGTHENING CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SUPPORTING
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. WE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SIDED ON THE COOLER END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOW
TEMPERATURES LIKELY GIVEN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 75%+
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL UNDER 10 DEGREES. IN FACT,
THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS FALL UNDER -5F. GIVEN WEAKENING WINDS, WE DO NOT HAVE
CONCERNS FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD,
INDUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT THE MID-ATLANTIC LIFTS
NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WHICH IS WHEN WE HAVE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE REGION. INITIAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR MAINLY SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO
MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLDER. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
FREEZING RAIN BUT WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE IT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE. GIVEN WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, IMPACTS
FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LIMIT WARMING
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 24HR SNOWFALL
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 4 INCHES BY 7AM WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
I-90. THUS, IMPACTS AGAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL WHICH GENERALLY MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI FOR
MINOR IMPACTS THROUGH 7AM WED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HEADING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES. IN FACT, THERE IS A 35 TO 65% CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.75" OVER THE 72 HR WINDOW ENDING
7AM SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, MAINLY RAIN IS
FAVORED AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS WHICH COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM AT TIMES, FAVORING
MORE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM
THE NBM SHOWS GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED 40 DEGREES EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN VALLEY
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ON SATURDAY. LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT
RIVER ICE AT LEAST 1 FOOT THICK PLUS DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 42 DEGREES AND AN INCREASE IN RIVER FLOW TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAK-UP JAMS ON RIVES. THEREFORE,
WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO LEARN HOW
MUCH OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK CAN RIPEN/MELT. LESS CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE 20 TO 30
INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL ON THE GROUND. EVEN IF WARMING IS
LIMITED TO THE VALLEY AREAS, THE COMBINATION OF INCOMING RAIN
AND SNOW MELT COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MECHANISMS TO AT LEAST
START BREAKING UP EXISTING ICE ON RIVERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE END
OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE KENX RADAR SHOWS TO WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS, BUT ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS, NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE,
HOWEVER, THIS INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SPATIALLY
CONSISTENT AND TRACKING THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IT IS
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. WHILE EACH LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
NOT DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, WITH BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHT, BETWEEN
10-15Z. ONCE THESE SHOWERS HAVE CONCLUDED, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILING HEIGHT WILL SEE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT VARY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY FALL BELOW 10 KT, BUT A DEVELOPING BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-12KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25KT PARTICULARLY AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page