445
FXUS61 KALY 011808
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AS LOW AS -10 TO -18F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.
2) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
THAT CHANGES TO RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW/WINTRY MIX.
3) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RIPEN AND PARTIALLY MELT THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK. WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
RAIN PLUS MELTING SNOW MAY START TO BREAK-UP SOME EXISTING
RIVER ICE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK REMAINING IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -15 TO -18 F ARE EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO ABOVE ZERO ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TREND TO NEARLY
CALM BY DAYBREAK, SO WIND CHILL ("FEELS-LIKE") TEMPS WILL BE
NEARLY THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ALONG DEVELOPING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW/WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, FAVORING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN EXPANDING TO
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS FARTHER NORTH
(NORTH OF I-90), AS 13Z/SUN NBM SHOWS GREATEST 24-HOUR CHANCES
FOR >0.50" QPF ENDING 7 AM WED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 (WHERE
CHANCES ARE 30-60%), WITH CHANCES NORTH OF I-90 GENERALLY
LESS (20-40)%. SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EXPAND FAR ENOUGH
NORTH, WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE, MORE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL
AS EITHER SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN),
AND WOULD RESULT IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
COULD REMAIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-90.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE
LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO DROP BACK
SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS TO PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS, AT LEAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX ON THE NORTH SIDE OF WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP, WHICH COULD INCLUDE THESE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. 13Z/SUN NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >.01" FLAT ICE ACCRETION
ENDING 7 AM SATURDAY ARE 10-20%, GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN VT,
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HAMILTON COUNTY IN
NY.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. IN FACT, 13Z/SUN NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 PM SATURDAY
FOR MAX TEMPS >50F ARE 80-90%+ FOR ALBANY AND AREAS SOUTH/WEST,
AND 60-80% IN THESE SAME AREAS ENDING 7 PM SUNDAY. PROBS ARE
LESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST (10-30%), REFLECTING SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN EDGE
OF COOLER AIR. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING SNOWMELT
WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES AND ICE BREAK UP ON
RIVERS, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE POTENTIAL WARMING, THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION, MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS WHICH SHOULD BE PROXIMATE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. 13Z/SUN NBM
48-HOUR QPF > 1" ENDING 7 AM SATURDAY IS 30-50% ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. SHOULD WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH THIS RAINFALL, THE COMBINATION OF INCOMING RAIN
AND SNOW MELT COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MECHANISMS TO AT
LEAST START BREAKING UP EXISTING ICE ON RIVERS EVEN IN SOME
NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z/MON, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DESPITE OCCASIONAL/PATCHY CIGS OF 3500-4500 FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z-14Z/MON. THERE COULD BE
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS AT KPSF AND ALSO KALB LATER TONIGHT,
HOWEVER OVERALL CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL BACK INTO
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET,
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TREND INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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