904
FXUS61 KALY 020552
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COMMUTE DUE TO AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW THAT CHANGES
TO RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF WINTRY
MIX.
2) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RIPEN AND PARTIALLY MELT THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK. WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
RAIN PLUS MELTING SNOW MAY START TO BREAK-UP SOME EXISTING RIVER
ICE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THAT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY EXITS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD. WITH A CHILLY ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IN PLACE, INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MAINLY
WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW SNOW TO TURN STEADY/MODERATE FOR A PERIOD. AS
ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WET
SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH/TURN TO PLAIN RAIN FROM THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH COLDER SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS, PARTS OF WESTERN MA, NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO A
WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF
WET SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX HAS INCREASED
CONCERNS FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INCLUDING THE P.M COMMUTE SO ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU PLAN TO BE
ON THE ROAD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER TUESDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SO COVERAGE OF WINTRY
MIX SHOULD DIMINISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BUT SFC TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
GREENS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SO SNOW AND WINTRY MIX LIKELY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING EXITS TO OUR EAST
AFTER 06 UTC WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT,
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE
LIGHT/PATCHY.
OVERALL, STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 2.5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SNOW LINGERS
THE LONGEST AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL
RATES. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM PLACES THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE NORTH OF I-90 BUT
EVEN THESE VALUES ONLY RANGE 20 TO 30%; THEREFORE, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A MINOR EVENT WHICH
MATCH WITH THE LATEST WSSI-P VALUES FOR MINOR IMPACTS RANGING 20
TO 40%. PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE IMPACT ARE VIRTUALLY 0%.
HOWEVER, WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLY, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED TO HELP MESSAGE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL FROM A GLAZE TO 0.10" OF FLAT ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE
LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO DROP BACK
SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS TO PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS, AT LEAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX ON THE NORTH SIDE OF WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP, WHICH COULD INCLUDE THESE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. 13Z/SUN NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >.01" FLAT ICE ACCRETION
ENDING 7 AM SATURDAY ARE 10-20%, GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN VT,
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HAMILTON COUNTY IN
NY.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. IN FACT, 13Z/SUN NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 PM SATURDAY
FOR MAX TEMPS >50F ARE 80-90%+ FOR ALBANY AND AREAS SOUTH/WEST,
AND 60-80% IN THESE SAME AREAS ENDING 7 PM SUNDAY. PROBS ARE
LESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST (10-30%), REFLECTING SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN EDGE
OF COOLER AIR. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING SNOWMELT
WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES AND ICE BREAK UP ON
RIVERS, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE POTENTIAL WARMING, THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION, MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS WHICH SHOULD BE PROXIMATE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. 13Z/SUN NBM
48-HOUR QPF > 1" ENDING 7 AM SATURDAY IS 30-50% ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. SHOULD WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH THIS RAINFALL, THE COMBINATION OF INCOMING RAIN
AND SNOW MELT COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MECHANISMS TO AT
LEAST START BREAKING UP EXISTING ICE ON RIVERS EVEN IN SOME
NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AMID CLEAR SKIES UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. FAVORED
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
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