588
FXUS61 KALY 020656
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COMMUTE DUE TO AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW THAT CHANGES
TO RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF WINTRY
MIX.
2) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RIPEN AND PARTIALLY MELT THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK. WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
RAIN PLUS MELTING SNOW MAY START TO BREAK-UP SOME EXISTING RIVER
ICE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THAT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY EXITS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD. WITH A CHILLY ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IN PLACE, INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MAINLY
WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW SNOW TO TURN STEADY/MODERATE FOR A PERIOD. AS
ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WET
SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH/TURN TO PLAIN RAIN FROM THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH COLDER SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS, PARTS OF WESTERN MA, NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO A
WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF
WET SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX HAS INCREASED
CONCERNS FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INCLUDING THE P.M COMMUTE SO ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU PLAN TO BE
ON THE ROAD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER TUESDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SO COVERAGE OF WINTRY
MIX SHOULD DIMINISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BUT SFC TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
GREENS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SO SNOW AND WINTRY MIX LIKELY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING EXITS TO OUR EAST
AFTER 06 UTC WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT,
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE
LIGHT/PATCHY.
OVERALL, STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 2.5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SNOW LINGERS
THE LONGEST AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL
RATES. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM PLACES THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE NORTH OF I-90 BUT
EVEN THESE VALUES ONLY RANGE 20 TO 30%; THEREFORE, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A MINOR EVENT WHICH
MATCH WITH THE LATEST WSSI-P VALUES FOR MINOR IMPACTS RANGING 20
TO 40%. PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE IMPACT ARE VIRTUALLY 0%.
HOWEVER, WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLY, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED TO HELP MESSAGE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL FROM A GLAZE TO 0.10" OF FLAT ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE, AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO LOOKS TO SUPPRESS THE
WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND REGIONWIDE
AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOWS A 60 TO 80% FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO REACH OR EXCEED 45 DEGREES AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INTO
THE NORTHEAST WHICH REDUCES PROBABILITIES FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 45F + TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING 30 TO
60%. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWEST IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT CAPPED AT 20 TO 25% WHICH
LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT.
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPERATURES, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WINTRY MIX
IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM SHOW 50 TO 70%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM 7AM WED
TO 7AM FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, USHERING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIR MASS. IN FACT, LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM SHOW AT
LEAST 75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EXCEED 45 DEGREES
NEARLY REGIONWIDE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES ARE
LOWEST IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS CLOSER TO
60 TO 75%. AFTER THIS WARM-UP, A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
USHER IN MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
RANGING FROM 4 TO 10" IN VALLEY AREAS TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO RIPEN AND PARTIALLY
MELT. SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM THE UPCOMING ACTIVE
PATTERN COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MECHANISMS TO AT LEAST
START BREAKING UP EXISTING ICE ON RIVERS, EVEN IN SOME NORTHERN
AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT BREAK-UP JAMS
ARE MORE LIKELY WHEN THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS AT LEAST
42 DEGREES AND RIVER LEVELS RISE AT LEAST 3 TIMES THE HEIGHT OF
THE ICE THICKNESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AMID CLEAR SKIES UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. FAVORED
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
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