579
FXUS61 KALY 021904
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VT WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA IS WHERE THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IN SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE MIXED
PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES.
3) WARMER WEATHER, COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL RAINFALL, INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SNOWMELT, RIVER/CREEK ICE BREAKUP/JAMS, AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE EXTENT OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR SOME AREAS,
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST TO ENCOMPASS
MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 BY MIDDAY, AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY, MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, SUGGESTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH RATIOS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10:1. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH
COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES, UNTREATED GROUND SURFACES WILL WILL
BECOME SLIPPERY IN SOME AREAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS
NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO A DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR,
THE LIFT MAY OCCASIONALLY INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, WHERE 1-3 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY
GREATER AMOUNTS (MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH, OR CHANGE TO SLEET FOR AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY PLAIN RAIN
FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, AS WELL AS THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT,
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY LINGER TO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EVENTUALLY, EVEN AREAS NORTH OF I-90 SHOULD MIX WITH AND/OR
CHANGE TO SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
WHICH IS WHY THIS AREA HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY AS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW/WINTRY MIX WILL BE POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AS A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST WAVE
LOOKS TO BRING MAINLY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR.
ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN, SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY DRAIN SOUTHWARD AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. 13Z/MON NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 PM FRIDAY FOR >
0.10" ICE ACCRETION AT 30-40% FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT, WITH SIMILAR PROBS FOR >0.25"
ICE AT 10-20%. SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME ICE ACCRETION POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS, WITH SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE GREATEST AMOUNTS
OCCUR, AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT.
13Z/NBM 72-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 AM FRIDAY FOR QPF > 1 INCH IS
40-70% FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 (GREATEST ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS), AND SIMILAR PROBS ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY ARE 40-60%,
HOWEVER GREATEST ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION (DUE TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY).
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, WHERE
PROBS FOR MAX TEMPS >50F THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY ARE 60-90%
SATURDAY-SUNDAY, AND EVEN HIGHER FOR MONDAY (80-100%). THEY
REMAIN LOWER ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
(10-30%), THEN INCREASE MONDAY TO 20-50%. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT AS THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH, LIMITING THE WARMING POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL PERIODS OF AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND ICE BREAKUP AND POSSIBLE JAMS ON AREA
RIVERS/CREEKS, STARTING LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
WARMER TEMPS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS
AND EXTENT OF WARMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER INITIAL
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL OVERLAP BETWEEN WARMING,
RAINFALL AND RESULTING ICE BREAKUP THROUGH SUNDAY WOULD BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, INCLUDING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. LATEST
MMEFS SUGGEST INCREASED CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MOHAWK RIVER,
AND AREAS ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BETTER REFINE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT, ICE BREAKUP AND FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 03/15Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. AFTER
03/15Z, LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
KPOU FIRST THEN INTO KPSF AS LIGHT SNOW. KGFL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IF
THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THAT FAR NORTH, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONED AT THIS TAF PERIOD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR KALB,
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW BETWEEN 16
AND 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...FZRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
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