195
FXUS61 KALY 031807
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH.
A FASTER INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLDER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. ALSO 12Z HRRR AND 09Z RAP TRENDED COLDER WHICH HAS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN OVER THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPDATE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN FREEZING
RAIN AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
VT, AND WESTERN MA.
07
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, INCLUDING
THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE, DUE TO AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ARRIVING
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO A WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
2) THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SLIPPERY
TRAVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN
MA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN.
3) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOWMELT AND HELP BREAK-UP
RIVER ICE. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ON SOME
RIVERS BUT GIVEN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1", WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM A
~1040HPA HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST. CLOUDY YET DRY TO START THE DAY THIS MORNING BEFORE
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY
INCREASES AND OVERRUNS THE CHILLY AIR MAS IN PLACE. SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP INITIALLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER 15 UTC WITH SNOW
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
IT REACHES THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LIFT INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR A
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN
VT WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN ALSO UPSLOPE THE TERRAIN. THE
STEADY PERIOD OF SNOW LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE P.M COMMUTE
THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORIST
SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME AND DRIVE CAREFULLY. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, LIFT LOOKS TO JUST
BRIEFLY INTERSECT THE DGZ BEFORE THE DGZ LIFTS HIGHER IN THE
COLUMN SO SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE AS EFFICIENTLY. DESPITE
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN COOL AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO WET-BULBING PROCESSES.
BY 21 - 00 UTC, THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 ALLOWING SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
WARMING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHER WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO WARM, MAINLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
TACONICS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, THE HELDERBERGS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE WE PLACED OUR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, EXPANDING THE ADVISORIES INTO THE
TACONICS WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM. SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, THE WARM NOSE LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WE MAINLY EXPECT STEADY SNOW TO MIX WITH
POCKETS OF SLEET THIS EVENING WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN LIMITED SO
DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY HERE.
THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING (33-34 DEGREES) SO EXPECTING SNOW/SLEET
TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY PLAIN RAIN THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER, IF TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOLER, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE NBM SHOWS 15-30%
IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY UP TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FROM 21 -
03 UTC SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPERATURES.
THE STRONGEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXITS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT QUICKLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF THE WINTRY MIX
FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER QUICKLY BY 06 - 09 UTC BUT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS OVERNIGHT AS
WE LOSE ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
OVERALL, EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
EVENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTH FACING SLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS. IN ADDITION, A GLAZE UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FLAT ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN WHERE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 40S DUE OUR ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER,
OUR WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SENDING THE
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT.
WHILE THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WITH THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01" OF
PRECIPITATION WED NIGHT UNDER 25% FOR AREAS FROM I-90 WHILE
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-45% HEADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SHOULD PRECIP END UP EXPANDING
CLOSER TO I-90 AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT, THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT COMBINED WITH COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES FAVORS
FREEZING RAIN BUT WITH POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END
CHANCE, THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE IN
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY BUT WITH TEMPERTURES SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE MID-30S, P-TYPE FAVORS PLAIN RAIN BUT IT IS CLOSE AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
QUEBEC AS THE SFC LOW FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST, LIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NORTHWARD.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP THURS NIGHT, DRAINING CHILLY AIR
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD. AS PRECIPITATION
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LOOKS TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN VT, WESTERN MA
AND IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY HERE RANGE 20 TO 40%. ELSEWHERE, SFC
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILDER SUPPORTING PLAIN RAIN BUT WE
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PROBABILITIES DECREASING UNDER 10% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
LOOKS TO BE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THE FRIDAY
A.M COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S BUILDS
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT
SLIDES SOUTH/EAST THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM
FRONT INITIALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ADVECT A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO SHOW GREATER THAN
75% CHANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 45 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BOTH DAYS. PROBABILITIES
ARE LOWER ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE SOUTHERN
GREENS UNDER 40% AS THE BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER, PROBABILITIES FOR 45F+ SHOULD INCREASE. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP RIPEN AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELT
THE EXISTING SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH STILL RANGES 5 TO 10
INCHES IN VALLEY AREAS AND 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT/EARLY
SAT PLUS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND, THERE IS A 20 TO 60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (LIKELY
RAIN) TO EXCEED 0.5" FROM 7AM FRI TO 7AM SUN. THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVER 1" OF PRECIPITATION IS MUCH LOWER UNDER 15% EXCEPT THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH IS NEAR 25%. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND FALLING RAIN SHOULD HELP
BREAK-UP EXISTING RIVER ICE, ANY FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS SHOULD
BE LOCALIZED DUE TO OVERALL LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES INCREASES WITH THE LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH 8-12 SHOWING 80-90% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WITH OUR SNOW PACK LIKELY RIPENED FROM THE
WEEKEND WARMTH, THIS SECOND PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD
FURTHER MELT THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING INTO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WE WILL REMAIN VIGILANT
FOR ADDITIONAL ICE BREAK-UP ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND ICE JAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL AS RAIN AND SNOWMELT FLOW INTO RIVERS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD AS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE KPSF AND KALB CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS, IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATE AT KPOU AND KGFL AS THEY ARE ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY IFR
DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN 04/12Z AND
04/18Z, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KPOU, KPSF, AND
KGFL. FOR KALB, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...05
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