302
FXUS61 KALY 051742
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE EASTERN
GREENE, WESTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER FOR THIS EVENT WITH MORE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
COOLER TEMPS, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME SNOW
MELT BUT ANY ISOLATED HYDRO ISSUES LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE EARLY TO
MID WEEK WARM UP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, INCLUDING FOR
THE FRIDAY AM COMMUTE.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMALS TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SNOWMELT AND INCREASED RUNOFF. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMS AND FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED ISSUES ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMED IN SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL, AS A STRONG SFC ANTICYLONE
AROUND 1040 HPA BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. INITIALLY, LIGHT RAIN
BREAK OUTS WITH A SHORT-WAVE AND THE WARM FRONT THE SOUTH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY BREAK OUT SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD. COLD AIR DAMMING SET-UP WITH THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH FUNNELING SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX TO SET UP. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE CAMS AND THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHAT
WINTRY MIX P-TYPES OCCUR WITH THE 3-KM HRRR FAVORING MORE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND SLEET, WHEREAS THE 3-KM NAM FAVORS
MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET FROM I-90 SOUTH. ALSO, THE QPF
IS HEAVIER ON THE NAM COMPARED TO THE GFS/EC/NBM. WE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE NBM AND WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER PROFILES, SINCE
THE LOW-LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC SIGNATURE IS STRONG WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR COLDER TRENDS AND WE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN TACONICS OF
EASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY, AND ALSO THE UPPER MID HUDSON VALLEY
OF EASTERN GREENE AND WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION. WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER.
THE COLD AIR DRAINS SOUTHWARD QUICKLY IN THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD COATINGS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FLAT ICE
ARE EXPECTED WITH ONE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND THE
HELDERBERGS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT MAY RECEIVE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. EVEN THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
RECEIVE A HALF AN INCH OR SLEET AND SNOW BASED ON THE HRRR
MODEL SOUNDINGS.
SLICK ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FRI MORNING
COMMUTE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECASTED ICE AMOUNTS IS
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS, AS THESE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
DON'T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES. ALL
THE ADVISORIES RUN UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THE PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING, AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST AND
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF IS
LIKELY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90...PERHAPS LESS
THAN AN A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONES. LOWS THIS
MORNING FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS TODAY WERE FAVORED
CLOSE THE MAVMOS/NBM BLEND WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ANTICIPATED WARM UP THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LESS PROMINENT THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5-10 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME SNOW MELT, BUT THE
IMPACTS LOOK LESS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS NEAR THE EAST COAST
FRI-SAT. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AND A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPS ON
SAT RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST BREAKS DOWN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SUNDAY, LOOKS
COOLER AND BREEZY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH SOME 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SOME SNOW MELT WILL
OCCUR, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD ICE BREAK UP IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES APPEARS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. FOR MOST RIVERS, THE NERFC IS NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH OF
A RISE TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAK UP. HOWEVER, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT ISOLATED ISSUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE EAST COAST
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MON-TUE. H500 HEIGHTS ANOMALIES WILL BE
1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS ALSO RUNNING A FEW
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S FORECASTED FOR TUE.
EXTENSIVE SNOW MELT AND SOME ICE BREAK UP IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE LATEST HEFS GUIDANCE SHOW LOW CHANCES
FOR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME OF THE GAUGES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL WED WHEN THE COLD FRONT GETS
CLOSER. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 15-20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WED BASED ON THE NBM/ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR 3-FOOT OR MORE RISES
WHICH ARE NEEDED TO BREAK UP A FOOT OF ICE BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE HYDRO FORECASTS OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIP EXPANDS
NORTHWARD BY THIS EVENING, COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD. SO KGFL IS EXPECTED TO SEE A MIX OF
RA/IP, CHANGING TO PL/SN AND EVENTUALLY SN OVERNIGHT. KALB/KPSF
WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RA TO FZRA/PL THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME KPOU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR RA. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE
BETWEEN 10Z-11Z. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN
IFR INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EVEN AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
HOWEVER, VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 3-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ059-060-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...07
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