988
FXUS61 KALY 052328
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT TREND IN A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, THE PRIMARY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES HAVE CHANGED TO SLEET AND SNOW AS OPPOSED TO
LARGELY FREEZING RAIN. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN STILL EXISTS, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
GREENS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER,
WITH THE WARM NOSE NOW EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE, THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS BECOME SHORTER IN DURATION.
THIS HAS LED TO THE REDUCTION OF ICE AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. BUT, GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME ICE ACCRETIONS IN ADDITION TO SOME SLEET
AND/OR SNOW, THE ADVISORIES HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO OVERNIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH, COMBINED WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN, COULD POSE THE THREAT OF RIVER RISES;
ICE BREAK UP; AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INITIAL BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAS
BEEN REDUCED TO MERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT BATCH
OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS UPSTREAM. WHILE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WERE NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALL RISEN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, SO ANY PRECIPITATION NOW REACHING
THE GROUND IS IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN...AND A COLD ONE AT THAT
CONSIDERING MOST HAVEN'T MADE IT OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 30S.
PRESENTLY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST BENEATH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE
DEEPENING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING, A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
AND TRACK EASTWARD, EXTENDING A HORIZONTAL WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT THAT WILL BE
MAINTAINED ALOFT BY THE CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOW, THE COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENT
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MAINE. MORE OR LESS EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS A RESULT OF THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE
COUNTER-ACTING COOL AIR ADVECTION TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROVIDED BY THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
AIRMASSES WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL
WARM NOSE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLD AIR
WILL BE DAMMED AGAINST EASTWARD-FACING SLOPES, THIS EVENING
THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO TRANSITION INITIALLY INTO FREEZING RAIN.
THIS COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS COURTESY
OF THEIR ADJACENCY TO THE HIGH AND THE COOL, WESTERN ATLANTIC
AIR THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IS PROMOTING. THAT SAID, SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POTENTIALLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE CATSKILLS, HOWEVER, DUE TO MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES.
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, FREEZING RAIN ACTUALLY LOOKED
LIKE IT WOULD BE THE PRIMARY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS, NOT JUST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER,
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE INDICATED
CONSISTENCY IN SLEET ACTUALLY WINNING OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.
THE REASON FOR THIS OWES DIRECTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE. PREVIOUSLY, ITS POSITION RELATIVE TO
OUR REGION WAS LOOKING TO BE MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD WHICH WOULD
HAVE ALLOWED SHALLOW COLD AIR TO SINK FARTHER THROUGH OUR AREA
AND NOT HAVE AS GREAT OF AN IMPACT ON THE WARM NOSE. HOWEVER, IT
HAS NOW CONSISTENTLY REMAINED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, PLACING US
IN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL
MORE SUFFICIENTLY COUNTERACT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOUT THE
INCOMING LOW. THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE DURATION AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE, ALLOWING THE INITIAL FREEZING RAIN
TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS TREND, WE REDUCED ICE
ACCRETIONS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND
KEPT FREEZING RAIN ISOLATED TO LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION RATES DROP AND
SUPERCOOLED DROPS COULD REACH THE GROUND BEFORE COMPLETELY
FREEZING.
ALL THAT SAID, WE STILL ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES
TONIGHT INCLUDING SNOW, SLEET, RAIN, AND LOCALIZED FREEZING
RAIN. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW, WIDESPREAD TRACE UP TO 0.3" OF ICE,
AND WIDESPREAD TRACE UP TO 2" OF SNOW, WE MAINTAINED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WITHOUT ANY CHANGES. PLEASE TAKE CAUTION ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW. MANY ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND
TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH IN TEMPERATURES REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID, A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY CHALLENGE HOW WARM WE
ACTUALLY GET THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S DESPITE 850
HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO 2.5 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. AND, WITH
THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
HOWEVER, 850 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, ALIGNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURN LATE TUESDAY POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
CHALLENGE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
BETWEEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN, WE
ARE GOING TO CONTINUALLY MONITOR RIVERS VERY CLOSELY. AT THIS
POINT, MOST HAVE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ICE DEPTHS, BUT SUFFICIENT
WARMING, SNOW MELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF, AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO RISES, ICE BREAK UP, AND POTENTIALLY ICE
JAMS THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS
TIME WHERE THERE MAY BE ISSUES, BUT KNOW THAT IT IS SOMETHING WE
ARE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY AND WILL PROVIDE UPDATES ON PROMPTLY
WHEN WE HAVE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AT KALB, KPSF AND KPOU, AND
FREEZING RAIN AT KGFL. AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN, THEN SNOW TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER TO DRIZZLE BY DAYBREAK, WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF
LIFR BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BOTH FOR CIGS AND
VSBYS. AFTER THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE CIGS RISE TO VFR IN THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WILL BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT AT KPSF WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS AROUND
2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ059-060-
066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24/07
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