051
FXUS61 KALY 061722
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS MORNING BASED ON
THE NYS MESONET, METARS AND WEBCAMS WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING
MAINLY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET/SNOW FROM THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION/GLENS FALLS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN THE CAPITAL REGION,
NORTHERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. THE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL NOON, THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 AM - 9 AM.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COLDER TEMPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE BEFORE A WARM-UP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES POTENTIALLY THRU THE
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE MID WEEK, COULD
POSE THE THREAT OF RIVER RISES; ICE BREAK UP; AND SUBSEQUENT
ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ASSORTMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
OR NEAR THE NY-PA BORDER AND WILL PASS ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-90
THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BROUGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN. THE PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AND SOME SLEET EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. SOME SNOW/SLEET CONTINUES
TO MIX IN OVER THE LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.
SHALLOW COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY HAS
TRANSITIONED FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN
GREENE/WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR-NAMNEST
HAS THE PCPN DIMINISHING TOWARDS 12Z/7AM. ENOUGH COLD AIR BEING
DRAWN IN MAY CHANGE THE PCPN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/NORTH-CENTRAL TACONICS FOR A COATING TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH. SOUTHERN VT COULD SEE 1-3" OF SNOW WITH ICE
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS, AND
BERKSHIRES WILL HAVE FLAT ICE AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH. THE
MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN, AS THEY ARE THE
ONLY AREA NOT IN AN ADVISORY. USE CAUTION ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE. MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL
NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES OF MA. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY NEED TO ISSUED
TO COVER THAT. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME SHALLOW COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO THE SFC HIGH TO NORTH AND EAST NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. WITH THE ONSET OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION,
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR ALONG OR EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AN SPS OR A NEW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT WITH THE WARM
FRONT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORM NORTH
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. HIGHS MAY
GET INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OPEN THE THE WEEKEND BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SAT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
SHOWERS DIMINISHING. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
MIXING OUT AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL BE
CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S LOWER 40S. WE WENT
CLOSE TO THE NAM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY ICE
MOVEMENT IN THE SOUTHERN BASINS, BUT FOR NOW NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE NERFC GUIDANCE.
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE NAEFS INDICATES H500 HEIGHTS RISE 1-2 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL. AN INFLUX OF MILDER AIR OCCURS. H850 TEMPS RISE A
COUPLE STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE. A PERIOD OF MILD AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/SPOTTY MID 60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT AND WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY ICE BREAK-UP OR MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE JAMMING.
THE ICE IS VERY THICK ON THE NORTHERN BASINS IN THE 18" OR
GREATER RANGE IN MANY SPOTS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE TUE THRU WED. THE
RAINFALL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES, BUT THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO VARY ON THE ENSEMBLES AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY THU TEMPS RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR MARCH WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
IT IS CHALLENGING TO SAY AT THIS TIME WHERE THERE MAY BE ANY
HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT JAMS, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY IMPACTFUL
ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION THAT WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS TONIGHT. VSBY ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY, ALTHOUGH THICKER FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY. WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND
3-7 KT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 4-11 KT SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page