164
FXUS61 KALY 071137
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
REGION THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
HIGHER TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG ADDED TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
2) WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT COUPLED WITH SOME SNOW MELT.
3) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL INCREASING LATE TUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL AID IN
SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF ICE
JAMS/MINOR FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, AS A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH LOW CLOUDS, SOME PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SLICK SPOTS
MAY OCCUR ON UNTREATED ROADS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF NOVA SCOTIA, BUT IS STILL FUNNELING SOME
SHALLOW COOL/COLD AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BELOW
H850 WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED. EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME SHOWERS
ARE POPPING UP OVER W-CENTRAL NY AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS
IS DUE TO THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OR POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OR
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOOTHILLS. WE WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT
SPS,IF THIS MATERIALIZES, THOUGH THE LATEST NYS MESONET
OBSERVATIONS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHOWALTER VALUES
DIP BELOW 0C WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER MAY GRAZE THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE PM. HOWEVER, THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR, EXCEPT MAYBE
LOCATIONS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE
WESTERN MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, WHERE THE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS THAT
IN THE NEXT KEY POINT. NONETHELESS, IN THE PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MID AND UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF ALBANY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.
SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR WITH A COUPLE FT RISES, BUT THE LATEST
NERFC FORECAST INDICATES NO FLOODING AND WITHIN BANKS RISES,
THOUGH PREDICTING ICE BREAK-UP AND MOVEMENT WILL BE CHALLENGING
WITHOUT 3 FEET OR MORE RISES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OR STABLE
LAYER WILL INHIBIT STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SFC FROM
ALOFT. POTENTIAL STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT WEST-
CENTRAL NY WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE BASED ON THE CAMS. MOST
IF NOT ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MUCAPES LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL AT
6-6.5C/KM, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR. SPC HAS
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY-TONIGHT IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THIS ALIGNS WITH WFO ALY
THINKING. PWATS DO RISE TO AN INCH OR GREATER, SO SOME LOCALIZED
BRIEF BURSTS OF RAIN MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, TOTAL QPF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
WITH PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH FOR THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THEIR IS A DEEP
SNOWPACK OF 1-3 FEET IN THESE LOCATIONS, WHICH SHOULD ABSORB
THE RAINFALL. LOWS FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE REST OF
THE AREAS, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS END FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND A
WARM START, MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN
THE VALLEYS AND THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL RUN OFF
IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT SHOULD SLOW WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL TO OPEN THE WEEK, BUT THEN
H500/MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED
ON THE NAEFS HEADING INTO TUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INCREASING. H850 TEMPS WILL ALSO RUN A FEW STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL.
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH A FEW MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE FORECASTED BASED ON THE NBM
MON NIGHT. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE TUE WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S TO MID 60S (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F READINGS NEAR I84. SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR WITH SOME ICE BREAKUP POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE LATEST MMEFS (NAEFS/GEFS) AND HEFS ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH
GUIDANCE SHOW SOME LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING AT A FEW
POINTS (I.E. THE HOUSATONIC BASIN) BASED ON THE SNOW MELT. IT
IS TYPICALLY IS CHALLENGING TO GET FLOODING JUST ON SNOW MELT,
BUT SOME ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT MAY AGITATE A FEW BASINS.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCREASES THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THE MID WEEK. THE RUNOFF+SNOW MELT COULD POSE A
FEW PROBLEMS. THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE CASE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSE A THREAT
WITH ICE JAMS AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HOW ICE LEVELS IN THE HSA RIVERS/STREAMS HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED BY THESE WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN THU-
FRI WITH SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND WAVES MOVING ALONG IT, THOUGH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FLUCTUATION OF CONDITIONS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND MIST FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AND MIST
CONTINUES AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
(AFTER 00Z), RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AT KGFL, KPSF, AND KALB TO INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MENTION IN THE PREVAILING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. FOR KPSF, STARTED EARLIER
FOR LLWS AT 2 KFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
AFTER 08/00Z, LLWS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS AT 2 KFT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR ALL TAF SITES. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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