111
FXUS61 KALY 080030
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 7:30 PM EST...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, TRACKING
EASTWARDS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR TWO. HOWEVER, 00Z KALY SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION. SO, A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING. IN FACT, WITH THIS
STRONG INVERSION AND STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL COLD WEDGE, TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF THE ADKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS ARE
RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO
WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ASIDE
FROM THESE TEMPERATURES CHANGES, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS...TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW MELT,
AND SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
2) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO
BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH, ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WILL AID IN SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER RISES, AND A
SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A
STALLED OUT WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD OUT OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. WHILE PARTS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE SEEN THE
BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH, THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY THEN TURNS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, KEEPING OUR AREA
WITHIN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FOR
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STABLE
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE THANKS TO A STRONG INVERSION, BUT THERE
IS DRIER AND LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THIS LAYER.
THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REST TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER, BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL BE CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES, CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S, WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, BUT
WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST, IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT AND HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME CLEARING TRYING TO MOVE
IN.
AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE
INITIAL BATCH AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER LINE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED, BUT ALL AREAS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP TONIGHT. WITH THE STABLE AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THE FRONT CROSSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT, SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED. STILL, THERE COULD BE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER, AS 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, THOUGH, AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP ANY
STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
TOTAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OR TWO, WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE
RAINFALL, AND SOME SNOWMELT FROM THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS, WILL
LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF, BUT IT WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS JUST YET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DESPITE BEING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
RISING HEIGHTS, COMBINED WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
SHOULD ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY. AFTER
50S ON SUNDAY, MANY SPOTS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON MONDAY, AND MID
60S TO LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN EACH DAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MILDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND SUNSHINE, THERE SHOULD BE SNOW MELT
EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY SLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE WILL BE RIPENING WITH THE WARM TEMPS, EVEN
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND SNOW DEPTH WILL QUICKLY BE
COMPRESSED AND REDUCED EACH DAY. RIVER ICE WILL BEGIN TO ROT IN
PLACE, ALTHOUGH IF ENOUGH RUNOFF OCCURS, THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
BREAKING UP AND MOVEMENT AS WELL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO RELATED ISSUES COULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE MID-WEEK, AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS STILL VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING,
BUT SOME RAIN WILL A WARM FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF ENOUGH RAINFALL OCCURS, THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR ICE JAM CONCERNS DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF RIVER ICE.
EVEN OUTSIDE THE RIVERS, SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR FROM
THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT QPF, AS THIS
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH RUNOFF OCCURS. THE LATEST MMEFS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
PERHAPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SOME COLDER AIR WILL RETURN, WHICH COULD
EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP TO END AS SNOW, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FOR THE LATE WEEK,
BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE OUT OF ORDINARY FOR MID MARCH.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO IFR (CIGS) AT
ALB/POU/PSF AND LOW-END MVFR AT GFL. MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN, A
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH THESE SHOWERS, CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE 06-
08Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT POU/PSF, BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SCT CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AT ALB/GFL THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THEN, AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH A TREND BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
VSBYS AND CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE SE, VEERING TO THE SW
AFTER 06Z AT ALB/GFL, AND AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AT POU/PSF. WILL
ALSO MENTION LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERING FROM THE SW TO W/SW AT 40-60 KT. TOMORROW, WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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