303
FXUS61 KALY 082315
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING SKIES, WITH CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
MILDER FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND LOWERED
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MID WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH,
ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WILL AID
IN SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF
ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING.
2)A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE STORM PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION, RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE THREATS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL HAVE FINALLY OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MOST VALLEY
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S EACH DAY, WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS AS
WARM AS THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW
60S. IT MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMING TEMPS AND THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE, SNOW
MELT WILL BE OCCURRING EACH DAY. THE MELT WILL SLOW DOWN FOR
MOST NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS, BUT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME RUNOFF HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN ON AREA RIVER
HYDROGRAPHS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE BASINS.
NORTHERN BASINS HAVE SEEN THE SNOWPACK STARTING TO COMPRESS AS
MELTWATER IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE PACK, ALTHOUGH EVEN
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE RUNOFF THIS WEEK AS THE SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO RISE.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER RISES. IT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ICE MOVEMENT TOO, BUT A LOT OF RIVER ICE WILL
START TO ROT AND MELT IN PLACE THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
SNOWMELT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SMALLER BASINS EARLY IN THE WEEK,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE WIND AND SOME RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
OCCURS, SOME HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE
TO ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS POINT, THE
MMEFS SUGGEST SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE OF THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER BY LATER THIS WEEK, AS PERHAPS THE SACANDAGA
RIVER. BASED ON CURRENT FLOWS, PARTS OF THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK
COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED ISSUES LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL IF
ENOUGH PRECIP OCCURS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE RIVERS, SOME PONDING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS THANKS TO THE RAIN,
SNOW MELT AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. COLDER WEATHER AND
FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD SLOW
DOWN THE SNOW MELT AND THREAT FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH AT TIMES. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT PASSAGE, WHICH AT THIS POINT, LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL BE SWITCHING AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME
FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CHANNELED
VALLEY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND THE FRONT,
THE RAIN MAY END AS SOME WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK FAIRLY MINOR AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, SO ANY
REMAINING WET SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK IF WINDS DON'T DRY
THEM OUT FIRST. BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM, TEMPS LOOK TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL TO END OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 7:15 PM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT
WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LATER TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG/MIST
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND
THICK IT WILL BE. HAVE KEPT TEMP GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBYS AT ALB/POU,
BUT TRENDED PSF TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND GFL DOWN TO
IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG OR MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE AT 5 KT
OR LESS, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AT GFL/PSF WHERE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 35 KT WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35/31
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