477
FXUS61 KALY 091024
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
BEEN OBSERVING FOG. WINDS HAVE INCREASED FOR A BREEZY DAY IN STORE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS
(SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN).
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WILL AID IN SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL
RIVER RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF ICE JAMS AND MINOR
FLOODING.
2)A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION, RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WILL BE THREATS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL HAVE FINALLY OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MOST VALLEY
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S EACH DAY, WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS AS
WARM AS THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW
60S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE SOUTHERLY
BREEZE, SNOW MELT WILL BE OCCURRING EACH DAY. THE MELT WILL SLOW
DOWN FOR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S, BUT
MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
RUNOFF HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN ON AREA RIVER HYDROGRAPHS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE BASINS. NORTHERN
BASINS HAVE SEEN THE SNOWPACK STARTING TO COMPRESS AS MELTWATER
IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE PACK, ALTHOUGH EVEN NORTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE RUNOFF THIS WEEK AS THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
TO RISE.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER RISES. IT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ICE MOVEMENT TOO, BUT A LOT OF RIVER ICE WILL
START TO ROT AND MELT IN PLACE THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
SNOWMELT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SMALLER BASINS EARLY IN THE WEEK,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE WIND AND SOME RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
OCCURS, SOME HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE
TO ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS POINT, THE
MMEFS SUGGEST SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE OF THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER BY LATER THIS WEEK, AS PERHAPS THE SACANDAGA
RIVER. BASED ON CURRENT FLOWS, PARTS OF THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK
COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED ISSUES LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL IF
ENOUGH PRECIP OCCURS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE RIVERS, SOME PONDING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS THANKS TO THE RAIN,
SNOW MELT AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. COLDER WEATHER AND
FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD SLOW
DOWN THE SNOW MELT AND THREAT FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MORNING UPDATE:
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS
COULD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT VERSUS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED IN
THESE LOCATIONS TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE STORM SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY FIRST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE ALSO HINTING AT LOW CHANCES FOR
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THERE IS FLUCTUATION WITH ARRIVAL TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, SO WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND WHEN RAIN COULD ARRIVE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN THE COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH.
BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LOCATIONS
EAST, TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 DEGREES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
FALL DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK, SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AND MORE DETAILS ON WINDS AND IMPACTS CAN BE READ BELOW
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH AT TIMES. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT PASSAGE, WHICH AT THIS POINT, LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL BE SWITCHING AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME
FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CHANNELED
VALLEY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
RAIN MAY END AS SOME WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY MINOR AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BELOW FREEZING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, SO ANY REMAINING WET
SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK IF WINDS DON'T DRY THEM OUT FIRST.
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM, TEMPS LOOK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END
OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z-14Z/MON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
KPSF AND KGFL AFTER 06Z/TUE WITH PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS AT KALB
AND KGFL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 4-8 KT
TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL
AND KPSF, AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KT WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 30-35
KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...24
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